December Rate Cut Locked In? Fed Probability Skyrockets 75% - Markets Brace for Impact
The Federal Reserve just sent shockwaves through global markets as rate cut expectations explode.
The New Math
Traders are pricing in a 75% chance of December easing - the most aggressive bet on Fed dovishness since the inflation fight began. Wall Street's crystal ball suddenly looks clearer than your average economist's forecast.
Market Tsunami Building
Risk assets from tech stocks to cryptocurrencies are positioning for the liquidity floodgates to reopen. The last time the Fed pivoted this hard, Bitcoin rallied 150% in six months. History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes - especially when free money's on the table.
Institutional Gold Rush
Smart money's already front-running the pivot. Digital asset inflows hit record levels last week as hedge funds position for what could be the mother of all risk-on rallies. Because nothing says 'prudent monetary policy' like chasing yield in volatile assets.
The Fed's playing with fire - and traders are bringing gasoline.
He explained that this shift is giving risk assets some relief and may help push prices higher in the coming weeks. At the same time, Zerohedge highlighted a Goldman Sachs forecast saying they expect one monetary easing in Dec, and two more in March and June 2026, bringing interest down to 3-3.25%.
According to them, lower borrowing costs and weaker dollar conditions usually create a positive environment for cryptocurrency.
December Rate Cut Probability Surge To 75%: What Happened Recently?
Fresh CME FedWatch market data also supports analysts’ views. As of now, Fed rate cut probability surges 75.5% ahead of the FOMC Dec meeting, and only 24.5% of the market expects the easing to stay unchanged.
| 350–375 bps | 75.5% | 42.4% | 91.7% |
| 375–400 bps (current) | 24.5% | 57.8% | 3.6% |
| 325–350 bps | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
This strong expectation increases confidence that the December Rate Cut will bring new liquidity into risk assets, including cryptocurrency.
What If the Fed Chair Jerome Powell Approves? Potential Crypto Impact
Market watchers believe that if the Fedchair approves the monetary easing, then the impact on crypto will be huge, because as seen in history, whenever any regulatory or political news approaches the industry, it often results in digital asset’s bull run.
Let's analyze how cryptocurrencies might behave:
1.It has recently faced a 25% monthly drop, but is now stabilizing around $85,900. TradingView technical indicators show early recovery signs, as MACD is showing an early bullish crossover.
If the December Rate Cut turns real Bitcoin price may jump toward $92K–$96K and possibly retest $100K+ if ETF inflows remain strong. But if not then, liquidity will stay tight and panic selling could push BTC down to $73K–$70K.
2.It is trading near $2,800 with RSI at 44 and improving MACD strength. A successful FOMC Fed rate cut chance WOULD be extremely positive, as the token might target $3500, because lower interest make staking more attractive and bring more liquidity to Web3.
If powell in his next speech says, that there will be no easing, then the altcoin might go in another read zone around $2300
3.It is around $128 after a strong downtrend. RSI is 43 and MACD is turning upward but needs confirmation. As per my analysis being a crypto strategist, the upside prediction is $138–$145, and downwards momentum is $108.
Overall crypto market impact depends on the tone of Jerome Powell and what kind of news surfaces ahead of the December FOMC meeting.
Conclusion
A December Rate Cut would mean cheaper borrowing, a weaker dollar, and more demand for risk assets. Analysts agree that the Fed probability surge 75% news is a positive sentiment for the marketplace, and major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs expect more easing in 2026.
If Powell confirms the move, the crypto market could see a strong recovery rally. But if the Fed stays hawkish, another wave of panic selling may hit. That’s exactly why traders are watching the upcoming FOMC discussion so closely.
Disclaimer: This article is only for information, and does not support any financial advice. DYOR before making any investment decision.
