How do you find the expected value of a beta distribution?

A. First, you must determine expected value using the beta distribution PERT formula. That formula is: (Optimistic + Pessimistic + (4 x Most Likely)) / 6. The formula solved for this question is: (108 + 126 + (4 x 114)) / 6 = 115. Next, you need to determine the standard deviation.

How accurate is a beta distribution compared to a 3 point estimate?

If plotted against a chart, this beta distribution will result in an more uniform, bell shaped curve, called a normal distribution. This has been tested in several different industries, across different countries, and over different time periods, but has always turned out to be more accurate than the 3 point estimate.

What is the most likely estimate based on a pert formula?

The third value in the PERT formula is the Most Likely estimate and is represented as “M.” Estimate for both favorable and unfavorable conditions, with some risks occurring. The name is accurate in the estimate is based on changes, but ones that have been planned for and can be mitigated.