Les grands gestionnaires d’actifs délaissent les actions IA pour les secteurs boostés par le gouvernement

Wall Street change de cap - l'intelligence artificielle passe au second plan alors que les fonds se ruent vers les secteurs soutenus par les plans de relance gouvernementaux.

La nouvelle donne stratégique

Les mastodontes de la gestion d'actifs réallouent massivement leurs portefeuilles, fuyant la surchauffe des valeurs technologiques pour se positionner sur les infrastructures, les énergies vertes et la défense - tous boostés par les milliards des plans de relance. Une volte-face qui sent bon les subventions étatiques.

Le retour du bon vieux capitalisme de copinage - quand les fonds privés suivent docilement l'argent public plutôt que l'innovation réelle.

Equally bold programs are emerging from European governments

Germany has introduced a 500-billion-euro ($586 billion) infrastructure fund designed to bypass its tight fiscal constraints. Separately, NATO countries have agreed to boost defense spending to 3.5% of GDP.

Antonio Cavarero, head of investments at Generali Asset Management, which manages $430 billion in assets, said these fiscal commitments are unusual in their scale and duration. “Fiscal stimulus is always a big element of the performance of the financial markets,” Cavarero noted. He added that the structural changes these programs create would continue for years, though “it takes time before those moneys actually percolate (through) the system … before you see them becoming reality.”

Cavarero identified nuclear power, energy infrastructure, biotech innovation, and defense as industries that “cannot be ignored by the market.” However, he cautioned that “at some point, we will need to deal with these debts.”

Defense stocks tell a different story

The S&P 500 index has climbed nearly 14% this year, outpacing Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 index, which gained 9.5%. But the aerospace and defense index has jumped almost 68%, demonstrating how government priorities are lifting defense and industrial companies despite AI’s broader market dominance.

Saira Malik, chief investment officer at Nuveen, which manages $1.3 trillion in assets, expects stock gains to spread beyond U.S. technology companies to cyclical sectors, small-caps, and value stocks. “U.S. outperformance is not the only game in town this year, thanks to a weaker dollar,” she said.

Malik recommended investors maintain balanced portfolios with a tilt toward U.S. markets. He said investors shouldn’t concentrate exclusively on American assets while ignoring other opportunities, but they also shouldn’t take positions against the United States.

She also highlighted opportunities in infrastructure, utilities, and waste management, calling them resilient options that protect against inflation.

Both UBS and Nuveen emphasized active management strategies over passive index investing. Haefele suggested that investors should focus on active strategies instead of relying on overall market performance.

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