Altcoin season index stuck in neutral – When is the next alt rally?

• Altcoin season index has remained neutral since December 2024. 
• A surge in BTC dominance back to 58% has capped the altcoin momentum. 

The much-awaited altcoin season 2025 has remained elusive. A key indicator for the altcoin momentum, the altcoin season index, has been neutral, suggesting it was neither an altcoin nor a Bitcoin [BTC] season. 

Source: BlockChain Center 

Since late December 2024, the index has fluctuated near 50, exposing most altcoins to range or dumping.  However, select coins like Solana [SOL] have recorded modest gains over the same period. 

So, when can the sector record another strong traction, like in November? Let’s explore BTC dominance and USDT dominance for clues. 

BTC dominance surge to 58%

Historically, the altcoin momentum rallies whenever BTC dominance (BTC.D) drops and capital rotates to altcoins.

The rotation is also marked by a sharp drop in USDT dominance (USDT.D), which indicates increased speculative interest in other risky bets in the altcoin sector. 

Source: Altcoin season performance, TradingView

In the November run-up, the altcoin sector (OTHERS, white) saw strong upside traction as USDT.D and BTC.D dropped.

However, BTC.D jumped from 55% to over 58% since late December, indicating that most investors parked money on BTC rather than altcoins. 

Additionally, USDT.D is stuck in the 3.7%- 4.5% range, forcing the altcoin sector into a similar sideways structure. If BTC dominance drops, renewed altcoin traction could be plausible.

In the meantime, the market remains cautious and awaits the Trump administration’s pro-crypto policy updates.  

It’s also worth pointing out that next week’s Fed rate decision will dictate the market direction, hence the broader altcoin sector could remain choppy until early February. 

That said, crypto analyst TechDev, citing historical trends, projected that the altcoin market could grow strongly in 2025. He said,

“The altcoin market has seen a 10-month expansion period after both previous signals. Just an observation.”

Source: X