Bitcoin Attempts a Rebound After Plunging Below $81,000: Key Technical Signals to Watch in November 2025
- Bitcoin's Rocky Recovery: What's Driving the Current Price Action?
- Conflicting Technical Signals: Is This a Bottom or the Start of a Deeper Correction?
- The Great Bitcoin Shuffle: Long-Term Holders vs. New Speculators
- Fed Watch: How Thanksgiving Week Could Shape Bitcoin's Fate
- Frequently Asked Questions
Bitcoin's rollercoaster ride continues as we approach the end of November 2025. After a brutal drop below $81,000, the cryptocurrency is showing tentative signs of recovery around $88,000. Traders are closely watching technical indicators, including the ominous "death cross" that appeared on daily charts. With Thanksgiving week bringing crucial macroeconomic data, all eyes are on whether BTC can reclaim the psychological $100,000 level.
Bitcoin's Rocky Recovery: What's Driving the Current Price Action?
The cryptocurrency market is witnessing intense volatility as Bitcoin struggles to regain its footing. After plummeting to $80,500 last week - a level not seen since early October - the digital asset has managed a modest recovery to $86,500. This price action comes amid a significant "death cross" formation on November 15, when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. Historically, this technical pattern has often preceded challenging periods for Bitcoin, though some analysts argue it might actually signal a local bottom rather than impending doom.
Conflicting Technical Signals: Is This a Bottom or the Start of a Deeper Correction?
The recent death cross has divided market analysts. Benjamin Cowen of IntoTheCryptoverse offers a nuanced perspective: "Previous bearish crosses have actually marked local bottoms in the market." Meanwhile, trader BitBull points to encouraging signs: "Bitcoin has reclaimed the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart for the first time in two weeks." This modest technical victory fuels hopes for a potential rebound toward $105,000-$110,000 if weekly closes can surpass $92,000.
Michaël van de Poppe draws parallels with the FTX collapse in late 2022, which paradoxically marked the bottom of the last bear market. "Current sentiment and indicators are far more bullish than during the FTX debacle," he notes. However, failure to rebound quickly could see bitcoin testing the 200-day moving average as support, potentially derailing any near-term recovery hopes.
The Great Bitcoin Shuffle: Long-Term Holders vs. New Speculators
Beneath the surface, a massive transfer of Bitcoin is underway. CryptoQuant data reveals 63,000 BTC recently changed hands. Long-term holders (those holding for more than 155 days) are taking profits after Bitcoin's rally to $108,000 earlier this month, while new speculators are accumulating aggressively. This dynamic creates what CryptoOnChain describes as "buying at elevated prices," with the short-term holder SOPR ratio plunging to 0.927 - its lowest level in 15 months, indicating many recent buyers are already underwater.
Fed Watch: How Thanksgiving Week Could Shape Bitcoin's Fate
Despite the bearish technicals, some experts see potential for reversal. Ignacio Aguirre of Bitget suggests, "Bitcoin's weekend rebound might signal broader market recovery rather than a bull trap." Historically, November averages 42% gains for BTC.
The shortened Thanksgiving week packs crucial economic data including September's PPI, PCE index, and Q3 GDP figures. These releases could sway expectations about Federal Reserve policy, with CME Group's FedWatch tool currently pricing a 70% chance of a December rate cut - a potential catalyst for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a death cross in Bitcoin trading?
A death cross occurs when a security's short-term moving average (typically 50-day) crosses below its long-term moving average (typically 200-day). While traditionally seen as bearish, some analysts argue it can sometimes mark market bottoms in cryptocurrency trading.
Why are long-term Bitcoin holders selling now?
Many long-term holders are taking profits after Bitcoin's rally to $108,000 earlier in November. This profit-taking is typical after significant price appreciation and doesn't necessarily indicate loss of faith in Bitcoin's long-term prospects.
How might Federal Reserve decisions impact Bitcoin?
Potential Fed rate cuts could weaken the dollar and make risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive to investors. The cryptocurrency has shown sensitivity to monetary policy expectations in recent years.
