Polymarket Odds of Fed 25bps October Rate Hike Rise to 54%, Up 7% in 24 Hours

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PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of a "Fed 25 basis point rate hike in October" has risen to 54%, up 7% in 24 hours; the probability of holding rates unchanged has fallen to 46%, down 8% in 24 hours.

Previously, a senior government official said that if the Federal Reserve decides to raise rates again in October (on the eve of the midterm elections), Warsh may find himself under stricter scrutiny from Trump and his advisers. Trump's characterization of a hostile Fed committee could leave investors wondering whether Warsh is leading the Fed or being carried along by it.

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