BTCC Crypto Daily (5.26) | Multiple Central Banks Signal Rate Hikes, Bitcoin Volatility Falls to Nine-Month Low

Top Highlights

• Multiple central banks signaled rate hikes

• Total stablecoin market capitalization rose to $322 billion

• Bitcoin volatility fell to a nine-month low

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• U.S. May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

• U.S. May Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index

• Several Fed officials speak

Macro Headlines

1. U.S. military strikes Iranian targets again, cooling expectations for U.S.-Iran deal

According to Reuters, the U.S. military launched new “defensive” military strikes against targets in southern Iran, weakening earlier market optimism that a U.S.-Iran agreement was about to be reached. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said the final agreement may still take several days to confirm. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard stated that Iran has the right to respond to any U.S. violation of the ceasefire agreement.

2. Euro strengthens against sterling as ECB signals June rate hike

The EUR/GBP cross climbed to near 0.8630 during early European trading on Tuesday. ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel said Tuesday that even if peace talks with Iran ultimately reach an agreement, the European Central Bank should still raise rates in June, because the conflict has lasted far longer than expected and elevated energy prices are transmitting into broader parts of the economy. According to the ECB Watch Tool, financial markets currently estimate the probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike at the June meeting at nearly 85%.

3. Japan’s core CPI rose 2.8% in April

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) said Tuesday that Japan’s core consumer inflation rate in April, excluding one-off factors and measured by the BoJ’s new gauge, reached 2.8%. The figure exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target and accelerated from 2.5% in March. This development is driving market expectations that a rate hike could come as early as next month.

4. Total stablecoin market capitalization rises to $322 billion

PANews reported that the total market value of stablecoins has reached $322 billion, exceeding the foreign exchange reserves of 95 countries. Stablecoins continue to expand in trading, DeFi, and cross-border payments, but the BIS also warned that stablecoins could worsen capital outflows and monetary sovereignty pressures in some economies.

5. Malaysia imposes 10% tariff on some gold bar imports

According to foreign media reports, traders familiar with the matter said Malaysia has imposed a 10% import tariff on some gold bar imports, disrupting the country’s gold trade. Traders and dealers said some imported gold shipments have been subject to the 10% tariff since at least early May. Since the additional cost would make imports unprofitable without a corresponding rise in local gold prices, some shipments have been held at customs or rerouted to other regions.

Traditional Market Cross-Asset Reference

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 162.10 points, or 0.25%, at 64,996.09. Korea’s KOSPI closed up 199.8 points, or 2.55%, at 8,047.51. U.S. equity index futures were broadly stronger during Asian trading hours. At press time, Nasdaq futures were up 0.68%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.49%, and Dow futures rose 0.51%.

• Crypto: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 39 today, entering the fear zone. Total crypto market capitalization rose to $2.56 trillion, down 0.61% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin is currently trading near $77,000. Today’s trending cryptocurrencies: NEAR (+14.4%), HYPE (-5.7%), and ONDO (-5.1%).

• Energy & Metals: Oil prices rebounded after the U.S. military struck Iranian targets again. Brent crude rose more than 3% to around $96.47 per barrel, while WTI crude is currently around $92.44 per barrel. Spot gold fell about 0.82% to around $4,533 per ounce, while spot silver fell about 2.1% to around $76.3 per ounce.

(Data as of May 26, 16:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On May 26, according to Coinglass data, BTC, HYPE, XRP, SOL, SUI, and other tokens led net outflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap

On May 26, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $76,753 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $75,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $550 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $79,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $830 million. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 16:00 HKT on the 26th, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 1.1806, indicating that bulls currently hold a relative advantage. Bitcoin is fluctuating near $77,000.

4. MEME Monitoring

On May 26, according to Coinglass data, the Meme coin market broadly continued weak and choppy trading. Leading tokens such as DOGE and PEPE saw slight pullbacks, while trading volume continued to shrink, showing that mainstream capital remains strongly wait-and-see. PENGU, TRUMP, and SKYAI saw relatively notable declines, with SKYAI falling more than 17% and OI retreating in tandem, indicating stronger signs of short-term high-level capital exiting. Overall, market sentiment remains cautious. If trading volume cannot expand again, the sector may continue to maintain a structurally divergent market.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• According to on-chain monitoring, the trader who opened a $100 million ETH short position yesterday has closed the position at a loss of about $260,000, then went long 175.04 BTC with 20x leverage, worth about $13.43 million.

• According to on-chain monitoring, whale 0x7be1 went long 2.34 million NEAR over the past 10 hours with 10x leverage, worth about $6.45 million, and placed orders to continue adding about 813,000 NEAR.

• According to on-chain monitoring, whale Evaded opened a 40x leveraged short position of 525.34 BTC, worth about $40.26 million. His 5x ZEC long position has unrealized losses of more than $1.48 million.

Blockchain Headlines

• Bloomberg: During Asian trading hours, the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index fell to 36.11 on Monday, the lowest since last September and close to the lowest level since 2023.

• CoinShares: Digital asset investment products saw net outflows of $1.47 billion last week, marking the second consecutive week of net outflows

• The Smarter Web Company increased its holdings by 10 BTC, bringing total holdings to 2,869 BTC

• South Africa is advancing crypto asset regulation, focusing on cross-border transactions rather than ownership restrictions, with the public comment period extended to June 30

• Alps Blockchain is converting Bolivia’s idle 127MW natural gas thermal power plant into a Bitcoin mining site. Around 27MW is currently online, with hashrate of about 1.23 EH/s

• On-chain analysis says most Zcash transactions remain traceable, and shielded addresses are the true key to anonymity. Arkham has linked more than $420 billion in transactions

• Ondo Finance founder Nathan Allman passed away unexpectedly, and president Ian De Bode will take over as CEO

• Pope Leo XIV is partnering with Anthropic, and his first encyclical will focus on AI and human dignity

• Alipay launched AI Wallet and Token Pay, with its AI payment supporting 95% of general agent frameworks

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• Cathie Wood: Her base-case Bitcoin forecast for the next five years is $750,000, while her bull-case forecast is $1.25 million. She believes that gold substitution, insurance-like attributes, and institutional adoption are the main factors driving BTC’s long-term valuation higher.

• Swissblock: BTC has entered a high-risk zone, while ETF outflows show that institutional capital is temporarily exiting. Glassnode data shows that since May 7, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows on almost every trading day. CoinEx said spot ETFs have seen more than $2 billion in outflows over the past two weeks.