BTCC Daily (9.3) | CLARITY Act Expected to Move to Senate Vote on September 15, Bitcoin Consolidates Around $78,000

Top Highlights

• U.S. private payrolls rose by just 38,000 in August, below market expectations, while market pricing for a September Fed rate hike eased back to around 60%.

• BTC traded near $78,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded single-day net inflows of $101 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing $115 million in net inflows.

• Global bond markets found some relief, with Japan’s 10-year government bond yield falling back below 3%. Korea’s KOSPI closed up 0.26%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 0.17%.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended August 29

• U.S. July trade balance

• U.S. August ISM Services PMI

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook

Macro Headlines

1. U.S. ADP employment rises by only 38,000, below market expectations

U.S. private-sector employment rose by 38,000 in August, below market expectations of 48,000, while July’s figure was revised to a gain of 46,000. Manufacturing employment fell by 17,000, professional and business services lost 16,000 jobs, while education and health services added 45,000. Market attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report.

2. Fed Beige Book shows modest economic growth, September rate-hike expectations ease to around 60%

The Fed’s latest Beige Book showed that U.S. economic activity increased modestly, employment rose slightly, and prices increased moderately in recent weeks. Energy, transportation, and raw-material costs continued to pressure some sectors. New York Fed President John Williams recently signaled a wait-and-see stance, saying that “we just have to keep watching” the data. Market pricing for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September fell from nearly 70% to around 60%–62%.

3. Global bond markets get a breather, Japan 10-year yield falls back below 3%

After a sharp selloff in global long-term government bonds earlier this week, U.S. Treasuries and Japanese government bonds rebounded on Thursday. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell back to around 4.77%, while Japan’s 10-year government bond yield declined to around 2.97%. Relatively stable demand at Japan’s 30-year government bond auction also eased pressure from the previous rapid rise in long-term rates.

4. Japan August services PMI rises to 52.5, fastest expansion in five months

S&P Global data showed that Japan’s final August services PMI rose to 52.5 from 51.2 in July, above the preliminary reading of 52.3 and marking the fastest expansion in five months. The composite PMI rose from 52.7 to 53.5, a six-month high. Service-price growth remained elevated, further reinforcing market expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising rates.

5. Trump says “believe it or not, the stock market will go up,” downplaying Iran conflict’s market impact

Speaking at the White House on the Iran situation, Trump said that although the war had pushed up oil prices and increased market volatility, U.S. stocks continued to hit records. “Believe it or not, the stock market will go up,” he said. He also said the U.S. is moving “millions of barrels of oil” through the Strait of Hormuz each day, “for the most part” without trouble, and said the military campaign against Iran would not last “too long.”

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 0.17% at 64,214.48. Korea’s KOSPI Index closed up 0.26% at 6,579.48, with Samsung Electronics falling 0.20% and SK Hynix down 1.05%. In U.S. premarket trading, Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 0.1%, S&P 500 futures rose about 0.1%, and Dow futures were nearly flat.

• Crypto: The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 72, in the greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.62 trillion, up about 0.5% over the past 24 hours. BTC traded near $78,000, up about 0.54% in 24 hours. Today’s trending cryptocurrencies: XRP rose about 2.3%, while UNI gained about 2.6%.

• Energy & Metals: Brent crude fell about 1.1% to $94.52 per barrel, while WTI crude fell about 1.0% to $90.15 per barrel. Spot gold rose about 0.8% to $4,422.00 per ounce, while spot silver gained about 0.7% to $65.79 per ounce.

(Data as of September 3, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On September 3, according to Coinglass data, ETH, XAU, XAG, SPCX, SOL, and other contracts led net outflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap

On September 3, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $77,945 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $76,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.07 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $80,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $950 million. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 17:00 HKT on September 3, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 1.0194, indicating that bulls currently hold a relative advantage.

4. Stock Futures Performance

On September 3, stock contracts broadly recovered. NVDA led gains with a 3.76% rise, while MU, SNXX, and SOXL rose 2.69%, 2.37%, and 2.08%, respectively. Capital also returned, with NVDA trading volume up 40.01% and OI rising 18.84%. OI in SKHY and SKHYNIX also increased by 16.08% and 11.42%, respectively, showing a clear pickup in activity across semiconductor-related contracts.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• On-chain data shows that during Bitcoin’s 5.82% pullback from its local high of $81,474 on August 28, a group of whale addresses accumulated about 6,765 BTC, worth around $521 million.

• According to on-chain analyst Ember, an institution continued transferring 39,500 ETH, worth about $95 million, to multiple trading platforms over the past 24 hours. Over the past four days, it has transferred a cumulative 142,800 ETH, worth about $345 million.

• According to Onchain Lens, the “ShapeShift mystery whale” transferred 2,759 ETH, worth about $6.77 million, to a new address over the past week. The whale still holds about 147,300 ETH, worth roughly $351 million.

• According to Lookonchain, address 0x6436 bought about 430,200 HYPE again today, worth $35.1 million. Another newly created address withdrew about 94,100 HYPE from FalconX, worth $7.66 million.

Blockchain Headlines

• On September 2 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $101 million. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $115 million in net inflows, while Grayscale’s GBTC recorded $56.21 million in net outflows.

• U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $48.0764 million over the same period, the first net outflow after 12 consecutive trading days of inflows. BlackRock’s ETHB saw $52.91 million in net inflows, while ETHA recorded $53.35 million in net outflows.

• U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded single-day net outflows of $6.1318 million, all from Bitwise’s BSOL. Historical cumulative net inflows into SOL ETFs stood at about $1.345 billion.

• U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded single-day net outflows of $7.2028 million, all from Bitwise XRP ETF. Historical cumulative net inflows into XRP ETFs stood at about $1.676 billion.

• U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the Senate is scheduled to vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15 and said he expects the bill to continue moving forward. The SEC and CFTC are also continuing to advance their respective crypto regulatory rules.

• The U.S. CFTC asked a federal court to dismiss CME’s lawsuit challenging its regulatory decision on crypto perpetual contracts, saying CME itself could also apply, as a designated contract market, to list related perpetual products.

• a16z, Grayscale, and the Crypto Council for Innovation submitted comment letters to the U.S. SEC opposing uniform restrictions on “novel ETFs,” arguing that products should be regulated separately based on their actual risk parameters.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said digital assets, airlines, and the maritime industry could all become targets in the next stage of U.S. economic sanctions against Iran.

• Ethereum Layer2 network Silicon announced that it will cease operations. It has closed bridge deposits and its testnet, and is asking users to withdraw assets by December 31. After that, the network and block explorer will be shut down.

• The U.S. CFTC is studying regulatory rules on potential conflicts of interest between prediction-market platforms and affiliated trading entities, in order to further clarify compliance requirements for related platforms.

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• Glassnode said Bitcoin remains in a range-bound phase. The $83,000–$86,000 zone is a concentrated supply area for long-term holders, while $62,000–$65,000 forms a major accumulation support zone. The short-term holder cost basis is currently around $71,000.

• Wintermute said new liquidity from existing channels such as ETFs, stablecoins, and digital-asset treasuries has fallen to about 2% of total crypto market capitalization. RWA tokenization could become an important next-stage source of new capital because it can directly bring traditional financial balance sheets on-chain.

• Bitfinex Alpha noted that since 2013, BTC’s average September return has been about -2.95%, implying seasonal pullback risk. However, as long as price remains above the previous $68,000 consolidation range, it believes the higher-timeframe trend has not been broken.

• Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard said around 3,700 BTC from labeled entities flowed to trading platforms over the past week, while stablecoin supply stopped expanding near $310 billion. The current rebound still lacks confirmation from sustained spot inflows.