Despite 30% ETH Price Recovery, Ethereum Analyst Warns of ‘Clean Fakeout’


One of the on-chain indicators of Ethereum suggests the Ether token has hit its bottom.


Ether (ETH), Ethereum’s native token, experienced a sharp rebound after falling to an 18-month low of $880 on June 18.


Ether Price Rebounds 30% in Two Days

Ether’s price reached above $1,150 this June 19, marking 30%-plus gains in just two days. However, at the beginning of the new weekly session this June 20, the ETH/USD pair hinted at giving up its weekend gains, with its price plunging by almost 9% from the $1,150 high.


PostyXBT, an independent market analyst, told his 79,800 followers to be careful about the latest ETH price rally, noting that the move “would make for a clean fakeout.” Excerpts from his statement:

“It looks like an opportunity to flip long towards $1,250, but $BTC still hasn’t reclaimed it’s like-for-like level.”



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$700–$800 – Next Ether Price Bear Target

The statements appear as Ether, alongside other top cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA), have entered a bear market.


ETH/USD now trades 77% below its $4,951-record high, but some tokens are down 90% from their 2021 peak levels.


Concerns about the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy to tame inflation has stoked these sell-offs, hurting parts of traditional stock markets in tandem. In detail, the U.S. central bank plans to hike benchmark rates into 2023, which may leave investors with lesser liquidity to buy riskier assets like BTC and ETH.


Additionally, forced selling and liquidity troubles led by the so-called decentralized finance, or DeFi, sector have added downside pressure on the crypto market, thus limiting Ether’s prospects of continuing its recovery rally moving forward.


Analyst “Capo of Crypto” states that ETH has not bottomed out yet and that its price could fall further toward the $700–$800 range.


Signs of ETH Price Bottoming?

Meanwhile, one metric that tracks the differences between Ether’s market value and realized value suggests that ETH/USD is bottoming out.


The “MVRV-Z Score,” as it is called, assesses when Ether is overvalued or undervalued relative to its “fair” or realized value. So, when the market value has surpassed realized value, it has historically marked a bull run top.


Conversely, the market value falling below realized value has indicated a bear market bottom. Ether’s MVRV-Z Score entered the same buying zone in early June and is now consolidating inside it.


But this does not necessarily mean a trend reversal, according to the MVRV-price relation witnessed during the 2018 bear market.


It is worth noting that Ether’s MVRV Z-Score slipped into the green zone on August 12, 2018, when the price was around $319. But the  Ethereum token bottomed out on Dec. 14, 2018, when the price was close to $85.


In other words, if the on-chain fractal is still valid in 2022, then Ether has entered a bottoming out stage, at best.

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