Analysten stellen ’Kreisfinanzierung’-Fragen, während Nvidia 100 Milliarden US-Dollar in OpenAI investiert

Nvidias Mega-Investment in OpenAI zieht kritische Blicke auf sich - Analysten fragen sich, ob hier echtes Wachstum oder cleveres Kapital-Karussell betrieben wird.

Die 100-Milliarden-Dollar-Frage

Nvidias Rekordinvestment in Höhe von 100 Milliarden US-Dollar in OpenAI lässt Finanzexperten die Stirn runzeln. Das Timing könnte kaum symbolträchtiger sein: Der Chip-Riese pumpt genau jenes Kapital zurück in das Unternehmen, das seine eigenen Quartalszahlen befeuert.

Kreislauf des Misstrauens

Wall-Street-Veteranen erkennen ein vertrautes Muster - wenn Lieferant und Kunde sich gegenseitig finanzieren, entsteht schnell der Eindruck von künstlicher Nachfrage. Die 100 Milliarden fließen genau dorthin, wo Nvidias KI-Chips ihren größten Abnehmer finden.

Finance-Zyniker würden sagen: Das ist wie sich selbst die Miete zu zahlen - die Bilanz sieht toll aus, aber das Geld kreist nur im eigenen Ökosystem. Echte Wertschöpfung oder cleveres Accounting? Die Märkte werden es bald zeigen.

OpenAI will be leasing Nvidia processors

Nvidia has stated that OpenAI cannot use the investment money for “direct purchases” of Nvidia goods, according to Rasgon’s research note.

Both companies said Monday they are still working out some parts in the agreement. OpenAI intends to lease Nvidia’s AI processors rather than buy them outright, according to executives working on the deal. They also mentioned that predicting how quickly AI chips lose their value over time remains challenging.

Other major technology companies have made similar moves. Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. have both invested in leading AI startups to boost business for their cloud computing services. But Nvidia holds a special position in the AI world by controlling the advanced chip market needed to train the most sophisticated AI systems. This dominance has made the company the biggest winner from the AI excitement so far.

The partnership comes during a time of growing uncertainty in the industry. A large number of people, both inside and outside the tech world, now worry about an AI bubble that could burst like the dot-com crash 25 years ago.

Even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has suggested that some AI startup valuations might not make financial sense. Still, he maintains his belief in AI’s long-term promise and says the industry needs to spend “trillions” on supporting infrastructure.

A costly shift in the AI industry exposed

For OpenAI, which currently loses money, partnering with the world’s most valuable company could open doors to funding and computing power it cannot secure alone.

“It’s kind of like having your parents co-sign on your first mortgage,” explained Jay Goldberg, Seaport Global analyst who has given Nvidia stock a rare sell rating.

Goldberg also sees signs of circular financing in the deal and believes it shows “bubble-like behavior” in the market.

“When times are good, this is going to make things better. We’re going to grow faster; numbers are going to go up much faster,” he said. “But when the cycle turns, and it will turn, it makes things worse on the downside.”

The deal highlights how the AI industry has reached a more expensive phase of development. Building the data centers and buying the specialized equipment needed for advanced AI systems requires enormous amounts of money that even successful companies like OpenAI struggle to raise independently.

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