La OMC revierte proyecciones de caída de abril: pronóstico de comercio de bienes 2025 crece al 2.4%

Cambio radical en el panorama comercial global

La Organización Mundial del Comercio da un giro sorpresivo a sus pronósticos anteriores, proyectando ahora un crecimiento del 2.4% para 2025 frente a las previsiones negativas de abril.

Recuperación inesperada

Los datos revisados muestran una resistencia del comercio internacional que nadie en los círculos financieros tradicionales vio venir—quizás demasiado ocupados contando sus comisiones.

Momentum constructivo

El repunte refleja una adaptación más rápida de lo esperado en las cadenas de suministro y una demanda persistente a pesar de los vientos en contra macroeconómicos.

Las proyecciones pesimistas se quedaron en el pasado mientras el comercio mundial demuestra once más que tiene más lives que un gato—y mejor pronóstico que la mayoría de los analistas tradicionales.

WTO cites AI goods and tariffs for surge

According to the WTO, “robust trade in artificial intelligence‑related goods” is at the heart of the jump in 2025 merchandise flows. The body listed semiconductors, servers and telecommunications gear as the main drivers of this growth.

Director‑General Ngozi Okonjo‑Iweala said the upswing also reflects stronger trade links between emerging economies and the way governments handled tariff changes earlier this year.

“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world, particularly among emerging economies, helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,” she said.

Her comments are about the trump administration’s sweeping tariffs with significant variation by product, prompting U.S. companies to bring in shipments early to dodge higher costs.

The scale of AI‑linked commerce is also visible in debt markets. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the amount of debt tied to artificial intelligence reached $1.2 trillion, making it the largest slice of the investment‑grade universe. The bank’s analysts wrote that AI companies now account for 14% of the high‑grade market, up from 11.5% in 2020, and have overtaken U.S. banks’ 11.7% share of the JPMorgan US Liquid Index (JULI).

Debt and equity markets chase AI exposure

JPMorgan analysts Nathaniel Rosenbaum and Erica Spear identified 75 companies in technology, utilities and capital goods that are most linked to AI.

The list includes Oracle Corp., Apple Inc. and Duke Energy Corp. Many of these firms issue large amounts of debt but maintain low net leverage and high cash reserves. The group trades at 74 basis points, about 10 tighter than the broader JULI index.

“Debt tied to AI companies is growing fast but it trades tight for good reasons,” the analysts wrote, pointing to their strong balance sheets and heavy regulation.

These same firms have seen their equity valuations soar since ChatGPT launched the modern AI era three years ago, attracting investors who want exposure to technology that could reshape the global economy. Analysts warned, however, that any earnings setback at the largest tech players could spark a broader selloff because of their high valuations.

Debt investors are not standing still. Oracle’s $18 billion bond sale last month, the second‑largest high‑grade deal of the year, drew $88 billion in orders. Banks and private credit firms are also competing to underwrite financings that build out the huge data centers behind AI.

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