Gold Futures Rally 18% in Six Months as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

Gold futures surged to $4,748, marking an 18% gain over six months amid softening dollar and falling bond yields. Thursday’s 3% advance was the sharpest since March, while silver outpaced with a 5% rally. The precious metal’s rebound reflects fading war premiums as markets anticipate a US-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts note gold’s inverse correlation to real rates has reasserted itself. With Fed rate cuts delayed by sticky inflation, the non-yielding asset struggled post-war onset. But institutional flows are returning—Deutsche Bank among those rebuilding long positions ahead of potential $5,000 breakthroughs.

Market mechanics now favor bulls: energy deflation reduces Treasury appeal, while dollar weakness amplifies gold’s purchasing power. The metal’s failure to sustain safe-haven bids during conflict surprised traders, making current momentum more reliant on macroeconomic drivers than geopolitics.