Bitcoin Nears Breakout as US Term Premium Hits 12-Year High: StanChart Flags Opportunity

With the US term premium soaring to levels not seen since 2013, Standard Chartered suggests Bitcoin may be gearing up for a major move—because nothing says ’safe haven asset’ like a volatile crypto bet against macroeconomic turbulence. Traders eye key resistance levels as institutional interest creeps back in, though skeptics whisper: ’Ah yes, the classic ’inverse Treasury’ play—what could go wrong?’

Bitcoin’s role as a crisis hedge remains intact

Kendrick categorized Bitcoin as a hedge against two distinct types of systemic threats: private-sector collapses such as the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank failure, and public-sector credibility shocks like central bank interference or sovereign debt doubts.

While Bitcoin often trades like a risk asset in normal conditions, Kendrick emphasized that its true function emerges during macro stress events. He added that the latest term premium spike, an indicator of long-term inflation and rate risk, represents the kind of environment where Bitcoin historically reasserts its hedge narrative.

Kendrick also drew attention to a recent divergence: while the term premium has surged in recent weeks, Bitcoin’s price has stalled below the $100,000 mark. He attributed the lag to a temporary investor focus on trade-related fears, including tech-sector tariffs, which have muted Bitcoin’s reaction.

He wrote:

“BTC is lagging the term premium as the focus temporarily rests on tech underperformance. But when the narrative rotates back to central bank credibility, Bitcoin will revert to its hedge function.”

Bitcoin’s $200k forecast unchanged

Despite short-term volatility, Kendrick reaffirmed Standard Chartered’s long-term price forecast for Bitcoin: $200,000 by the end of 2025, and $500,000 by 2028.

He attributed this projected rise to macroeconomic pressure and improving structural access via spot ETFs, as well as a maturing derivatives market.

Kendrick has previously modeled Bitcoin’s growing share in optimized gold-BTC portfolios as volatility falls. He argued that this supports higher BTC prices over time, particularly if institutional access continues to expand under the current US administration.

According to Kendrick:

“This could be what’s needed for the next all-time high.”