Is Toncoin ready for a reversal after entering THIS ‘low-risk’ zone?

• TON has surged over the past 24 hours by 5.26%.
• Toncoin entered a buying zone as normalized risk signaled a low-risk area.

Over the past three days, Toncoin [TON] has experienced strong upward momentum. Over this period, the altcoin has surged from a low of $4.7 to a high of $5.24.

In fact, at the time of writing, Toncoin was trading at $5.22. This marked a 5.26% increase over the past day.

Before these gains, TON had been on a downward trajectory, dipping 2.5% and 3.49% on weekly and monthly charts respectively.

The recent price pump has restored market optimism, with analysts predicting a potential upside reversal. Cryptoquant analyst Dark Fost cited the return of buying pressure as a key factor to watch.

Toncoin enters a buying zone

According to CryptoQuant, the normalized risk for TON has entered the buying zone. This has dropped below 0.2 signaling the entrants to a low-risk area.

Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, normalized risk has played a vital role in shaping Toncoin’s price movement. Each time it reached the low-risk zone, the market tended to reverse in the mid-term.

Normalized risk has signaled low risk, and Toncoin’s Open Interest has shifted from a negative value of over -100 million to -15 million.

Source: CryptoQuant

This move suggests that the previous bearish trend is slowly turning neutral or could even become positive in the short term.

Such a shift indicates that a positive momentum is returning to the market.

Is TON set for a sustained reversal?

As observed above, Toncoin has entered a low-risk area for buyers to reenter the market. This has allowed a recovery in buying activity, which in turn is actively pushing prices higher.

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, TON was experiencing strong upward momentum as buying pressure intensified.

Source: TradingView

This rising buying pressure can be confirmed after a bullish cross-over emerged on Toncoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI).

A bullish crossover here implies that buyers are currently outpacing sellers and are taking control of the market.

Equally, the altcoin’s MACD is close to making a bullish crossover. If this crossover emerges here, it will validate and confirm a continuation of the uptrend.

Source: Coinglass

Looking further, Toncoin’s Spot netflow has remained negative over the past week. This implies that there’s more outflow from exchanges than inflow.

Source: IntoTheBlock

Bullishness is even more prevalent among whales. Large holders’ netflow spiked from -12.67 million to 15.15 million. This shift signals increased capital inflow from whales as they accumulate the altcoin.

Read Toncoin’s [TON] Price Prediction 2025-26

Toncoin is experiencing strong upward momentum as buyers reenter the market. The altcoin is in a low-risk zone, turning investors’ sentiment bullish with expectations of rising prices.

If these market conditions prevail, TON could reclaim $5.83, strengthening it enough to attempt the $6 resistance level. Conversely, if buyers fail to hold the lead, the altcoin could drop to $5.03.