Ripple mirrors 2017 pattern – How can XRP avoid a 2018-style crash?

• XRP was mirroring its 2017 surge – but this time, the scale is more than twice as large.
• Will it repeat its historic collapse or break the cycle to defy the odds?

Ripple’s [XRP] November 2024 breakout is unfolding in a pattern strikingly similar to its 2017 surge – but this time, it’s more than twice as large, according to analysts.

In Q4 2017, XRP saw a massive parabolic surge, closing at an all-time high of $3.30 by mid-Q1 2018.

Fast forward to Q4 2024, and Ripple has already delivered a 697% rally to $3.40, driven by real-world adoption and the SEC lawsuit.

Source: Coinalyze (XRP/USDT)

Yet sustaining this level remains a key challenge. Despite Trump’s pro-Ripple stance, XRP was trading at $2.52, at press time, down 35.2% from its peak.

However, in the 2017–18 cycle, XRP collapsed to $0.63 by the end of Q2 2018, wiping out nearly all gains and entering a prolonged consolidation.

Whether history repeats or Ripple charts a new course remains the critical question.

Is a 2018-style rally still a possibility for XRP?

From a technical standpoint, XRP has established a solid support zone at $2 on its 1D chart, testing this level twice since the post-election rally.

The first bounce pushed XRP above $3.30, supported by a bullish MACD crossover.

Although a market-wide selloff pulled XRP back to $2, the cryptocurrency demonstrated resilience with a 26% rebound to $2.52 within a week.

However, active addresses have declined sharply. After peaking at 873,184 two years ago, the count has dropped to 331,516—a significant decrease from 580,000 just four days ago when XRP retested $2.90.

Source: Glassnode

Despite this, sell-side liquidity has been absorbed. 

Whale accumulation has surged, with the largest wallets hitting an all-time high during the post-election rally. No significant distribution has occurred, reinforcing the $2 support zone.

If Ripple preserves its current structure and stabilizes on-chain metrics, a 2025 breakout toward a new all-time high is possible.

This scenario reduces the likelihood of a 2018-style collapse, offering Optimism for sustained growth in Ripple’s performance.