Altseason on the brink: Can Ethereum hold the crucial $2,600 barrier? – Analyst weighs in

• ETH’s plunged to $2.3K as crypto extended losses in February. 
• Altcoins remained capped amid increased BTC dominance. 

On 25th February, Ethereum [ETH] plunged further to $2.3K, cracking below the $2.6K threshold, which crypto analyst Ali Martinez projected could ‘cancel altcoin season.’ 

Per Martinez’s analysis, a dip below the Ethereum’s long-term ascending channel would signal a break in ETH’s market structure and weigh on the altcoin market. 

“Altseason will be canceled if #Ethereum $ETH fails to hold $2,600!” 

Source: X

Altcoin season status

In the past 24 hours, the altcoin market shed an extra $160B in market cap after dropping from $1.28 trillion to $1.12 trillion.

Since last December’s peak, the altcoin segment has lost over $590 billion amid persistent bearish pressure. 

Source: CoinMarketCap

Even the ETH/BTC ratio, one of the indicators of the altcoin momentum using ETH’s performance as the barometer, was yet to record a decisive bottom.

The ratio has dropped 68% to levels last seen five years ago. 

Source: ETH/BTC ratio, TradingView

Unlike the slight bounce in late 2024, which boosted the November altcoin pump, the indicator has not seen a strong relief rally again in 2025. This could dent altseason expectations. 

However, CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju noted that large players’ addresses with $10K-100K ETH, surged 24% in the past year.

Besides, with a cost basis of $2,199, ETH’s sustained recovery could depend on price holding above $2.2K. 

That said, the altcoin season index was at 31, suggesting it was a firm BTC season. 

Source: Blockchain Center

Besides, BTC dominance surged over 2% from 60% to 62% over the past week, which could cap altcoin recovery prospects in the short term. 

Surprisingly, some altcoin outliers saw double-digit gains despite the overall bearish pressure. Story [IP], Maker [MKR], Sei [SEI], and Berachain[BERA], were amongst the top weekly performers. 

Meanwhile, Raydium’s RAY was the worst hit, down 46%, with additional pressure from Pumpfun launching its automated market maker (AMM) for its graduated tokens.