Bradesco (BBDC4) Soars 70% in 2025: Safra Reveals What to Do Next with the Stock
- Why Is Bradesco (BBDC4) Up 70% This Year?
- What’s Driving Safra’s Optimism on BBDC4?
- Can Bradesco Sustain Its Momentum?
- What’s Next for Bradesco Seguros?
- Is BBDC4 Still a Buy After the Rally?
- FAQs on Bradesco (BBDC4)
Bradesco’s stock (BBDC4) has been on a tear this year, surging 70% and outperforming even some small-cap stocks. After a rough patch of weak earnings, the bank has clawed its way back to 2022 levels. Despite the rally, Safra remains bullish, raising its price target to R$24—implying a 23% upside—and maintaining a "Buy" rating. Here’s why analysts believe Bradesco still has room to run, backed by improving profitability, cost controls, and a strong insurance arm.
Why Is Bradesco (BBDC4) Up 70% This Year?
Bradesco’s stock has been one of the standout performers in 2025, rallying 70% after a brutal sell-off triggered by disappointing earnings. The rebound has been fueled by a mix of revenue growth and operational efficiency gains. Analysts Daniel Vaz, Maria Luisa Guedes, and Rafael Nobre from Safra note that while the stock has run up, there’s still upside—especially as the bank enters a new phase of cost optimization and credit quality improvements.
What’s Driving Safra’s Optimism on BBDC4?
Safra’s upgraded price target to R$24 reflects confidence in Bradesco’s next leg of recovery. The bank’s net income projections for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward by 3% and 10%, respectively, aligning with consensus estimates. Key drivers include:
- Improved Net Interest Margin (NIM): Projected at 9.1% by 2026 as Bradesco shifts to higher-quality loans.
- Cost Discipline: Physical footprint reduced by 25% YoY (branches -13%, service points -39%).
- Strong Insurance Arm: Bradesco Seguros continues to deliver ROE of 22-25%, above guidance.
Can Bradesco Sustain Its Momentum?
The big question is whether Bradesco’s rally is sustainable. Safra believes so, citing three factors:
- Revenue Growth: 2025’s profit recovery was driven by top-line expansion; 2026-2027 will hinge on efficiency.
- Risk-Adjusted NII: Expected to grow 17% in 2026, slightly below 2025 but still robust.
- One-Time Cost Pressures Easing: Employee profit-sharing spikes (up 50% LTM) are non-recurring.
What’s Next for Bradesco Seguros?
Bradesco’s insurance division remains a bright spot, with ROE consistently above 20%. Despite a tough 2026 comp, Safra expects 4% YoY growth, supported by healthy underwriting. Temporary pressure from hospital network investments should fade, freeing up cash Flow to boost the parent company’s financials.
Is BBDC4 Still a Buy After the Rally?
With a 23% upside to Safra’s R$24 target, the answer seems to be yes. The bank’s turnaround is progressing step by step, and while some valuation headroom has been consumed, efficiency gains and credit quality improvements could drive further upside. As always, do your own research—this isn’t financial advice!
FAQs on Bradesco (BBDC4)
How much has BBDC4 risen in 2025?
Bradesco’s stock is up 70% year-to-date as of November 2025.
What is Safra’s price target for BBDC4?
Safra raised its target to R$24, implying 23% upside from current levels.
What’s driving Bradesco’s recovery?
Revenue growth, cost cuts, and improved loan quality are key catalysts.
Is Bradesco Seguros performing well?
Yes, with ROE of 22-25%, it’s outperforming guidance.
