Powell warnt: Junge Amerikaner stehen vor dem schwierigsten Arbeitsmarkt seit Jahren

Jerome Powell reißt den Verband ab – die Jobaussichten für junge US-Amerikaner sehen düster aus. Der Fed-Chef spricht Klartext: Keine Generation der letzten Jahre hatte es so schwer.

Harte Realität statt Bullenmarkt

Während Tech-Giganten KI optimieren und Crypto wieder ATHs jagt, kämpfen Absolventen mit Ablehnungen und Gehaltsdegression. Der Einstieg in den Arbeitsmarkt? Ein Hindernislauf ohne Netto.

Systemfrage mit Finanz-Biss

Powell’s Diagnose kommt zur Unzeit – just als die Börsen brummen. Da hilft auch kein FSA-Gelaber von „Resilienz“. Die Jugend zahlt die Rechnung für eine Party, zu der sie nicht eingeladen war. Klassische Finanzpolitik: Gewinne privatisieren, Verluste vergemeinschaften.

Decline in job reallocation slows opportunities

Goldman Sachs economist Pierfrancesco Mei wrote on Thursday that “finding a job takes longer in a low-turnover labor market.” He examined “job reallocation”, the creation and destruction of roles, and showed it has fallen since the late 1990s, though more gradually in recent years. Today, most Movement is “churn,” or switching among existing jobs.

Goldman reported that in 2025 churn sits well below its pre-pandemic pace across industries and states, and the drag “mostly fall[s] on younger workers.” In 2019, a young unemployed person in a low-churn state typically landed work in about 10 weeks; now it takes about 12 weeks on average.

Donovan writes that “it might be tempting to blame technology,” since stories of machines replacing people are common. He concludes, in line with Goldman, that the U.S. pattern “more convincingly fits a broader hiring freeze narrative, affecting new entrants to the workforce.”

Trade careers offer a safer path

Donovan also argues this helps explain why less-educated young workers seem less exposed. Many high school dropouts secure full-time roles earlier, and a number likely did so before the 2025 slowdown set in. With college enrollment trending lower over time, more young people are opting for skilled trades. Some build blue-collar businesses earning six-figure incomes, while classmates take on student-loan debt.

Past experience shows the risks for new graduates during “no fire, no hire” periods. In the Great Recession, when hiring stalled across entire sectors, those finishing college between 2007 and 2011 faced too few entry-level openings.

A Stanford briefing found they earned less than cohorts graduating in normal times, and the gap lingered for 10–15 years.

That history raises the stakes for Gen Z and for minority job seekers now. Economists warn about “scarring effects”, lasting hits to pay, the ability to buy a home, and wealth building. Starting out in a slump often means lower wages and a tougher climb.

Powell, speaking Wednesday, also pointed to other forces weighing on labor supply, including stricter immigration policies, and said minorities are having a harder time finding work in the 2025 freeze.

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