US-Wirtschaftswachstum im September auf niedrigstem Stand seit drei Monaten – Zölle treiben Kosten in die Höhe, Nachfrage kühlt ab

US-Konjunktur büßt Tempo ein – Zollpolitik wird zum Bremsklotz

Drei-Monats-Tiefststand erreicht

Die amerikanische Wirtschaft verzeichnet im September ihr schwächstes Wachstum seit drei Monaten. Handelsbarrieren treiben die Betriebskosten in die Höhe, während die Nachfrage spürbar nachlässt. Unternehmen kämpfen mit steigenden Inputpreisen – eine direkte Folge der aktuellen Zollpolitik.

Nachfrage gibt den Takt vor

Die konjunkturelle Abkühlung zeigt sich besonders deutlich in der Nachfrageseite. Verbraucher halten sich mit Ausgaben zurück, Unternehmen zögern Investitionen hinaus. Ein Teufelskreis aus steigenden Kosten und sinkender Nachfrage setzt ein.

Typisch Wall Street – erst die Probleme schaffen, dann über die Lösungen wundern.

OECD warns Tariffs’ full impact on businesses still ahead

Separately on Tuesday, the OECD warned that the full effect of President Donald Trump’s tariff increases “has yet to be fully felt” across the U.S. economy. The organization projected global growth at 2.9% and U.S. growth at 1.5% in 2026, down sharply from 3.3% and 2.8% in 2024. The Paris-based body said tariffs, immigration changes, and inflation are the main forces weighing on prospects.

The fallout from trade measures is especially prominent, the OECD said. “The impacts of higher tariff rates are yet to be fully felt in the US economy,” the report said.

The organization noted that many tariff changes are phased in over time and that some firms have initially absorbed higher costs. Even so, signs of strain are emerging, citing the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to cut interest rates and Chair Jerome Powell’s observation that younger workers in particular are finding it harder to secure jobs. It also referenced a warning this week from former TRUMP economic adviser Gary Cohn.

Economic shock from trade barriers could arrive sooner

The economic shock from higher trade barriers could arrive as soon as this year, the OECD said. “Growth is expected to soften noticeably in the second half of this year, as front-loading activity unwinds and higher effective tariff rates on imports to the United States and China dampen investment and trade growth.”

For the current year, however, the OECD lifted its global growth forecast to 3.2%, from 2.9% in June, and raised its U.S. projection to 1.8% from 1.6%. Even with those upgrades, the group did not improve its outlook for next year and said the picture remains weak.

The upward revisions reflect companies’ efforts earlier this year to front-load trade ahead of tariff increases, the report said. Large investments in artificial-intelligence companies have also supported the near-term outlook. “Reductions in trade restrictions or faster development and adoption of artificial intelligence technologies could strengthen growth prospects,” the OECD wrote.

Taken together, the PMI snapshot shows firms wrestling with rising costs and softer demand while holding the line on prices. The OECD sees trade policy as a drag even as near-term growth gets a lift from front-loaded orders and AI.

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