Ação da Strategy despenca 15% em um mês, eliminando seu prêmio histórico sobre Bitcoin

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A Strategy viu seu valor de mercado evaporar 15% apenas em agosto - um tombo que apagou completamente o prêmio que suas ações mantinham sobre o Bitcoin. O mesmo ativo que a empresa supostamente "dominava" agora performa melhor que suas próprias ações.

Investidores correm para as saídas

O movimento mostra que até os chamados "especialistas" em cripto não estão imunes à volatilidade dos mercados. Enquanto isso, o Bitcoin continua sua marcha implacável - porque afinal, protocolos não têm reuniões trimestrais para justunderperformances.

O que era para ser hedge virou âncora

Mais uma prova de que no mundo das finanças tradicionais, até mesmo os prêmios mais consolidados podem desaparecer mais rápido que um tweet de Elon Musk. A Strategy agora aprende na pele o que os verdadeiros HODLers já sabiam: contra a matemática implacável do blockchain, não há estratégia que sobreviva.

Strategy backpedals as premium shrinks and critics speak out

Saylor’s entire playbook inspired a long list of treasury copycats. Today, firms that followed that same model hold over $108 billion worth of Bitcoin, which is 4.7% of the total supply tracked by BitcoinTreasuries.net.

If Strategy’s premium collapses, the whole framework behind treasury-style Bitcoin buying could fall apart. Jake Ostrovskis, principal analyst at Wintermute’s OTC Desk, said the shrinking premium “is a natural reaction to competition and alternative ways for traders to gain exposure to crypto.”

But the deeper issue, according to Jake, is the company’s decision to walk back its pledge not to issue shares when the stock trades below 2.5 times its net asset value. That sudden change is now forcing investors to rethink everything.

From that point, the stock stopped trading on earnings and instead started following the company’s crypto holdings, with a metric called mNAV guiding valuations.

That multiple has never been stable. It tanked during the Terra-Luna collapse, then jumped to 3.4 after Donald Trump won reelection. Now, in 2025, it sits at 1.57. The twist is that this crash didn’t happen during a downturn.

In late July, the company said it wouldn’t issue shares if the mNAV multiple dropped under 2.5, except in rare cases. Two weeks later, that guidance was rolled back, and on August 25, nearly 900,000 new shares were sold. Online, some investors called it a breach of trust.

Issuing shares at that level could create a loop: falling stock hurts Bitcoin-buying power, confidence drops, and the cycle repeats.

Saylor didn’t explain the change. Instead, he posted an AI photo of himself walking past a giant bear. The company didn’t respond to questions. His backers say the flexibility could help if Strategy joins the S&P 500 or if Bitcoin jumps again.

Other firms struggle as ETFs rise and Bitcoin sentiment shifts

But Strategy’s problems aren’t unique. Capriole Investments says almost a third of public companies with Bitcoin on their balance sheets now trade below the value of those holdings.

Small firms are at higher risk. They don’t have much room to raise cash, and many use convertible notes, which come with maturity deadlines and interest costs.

Strategy plans to eliminate all convertible notes within four years. It wants to use only preferred stock instead, a type of security that doesn’t require repayment. Most smaller firms can’t follow that path. They don’t have the same scale or reputation to pull it off.

There’s also more competition now. Over the past year, influencers and politically connected individuals have rushed into the market by forming crypto businesses through SPACs and reverse mergers. These outfits don’t have the same liquidity or staying power as Strategy, and many could get wiped out in a downturn.

On top of that, spot Bitcoin ETFs are gaining traction. When they first launched, both ETFs and Strategy rode a wave of optimism after Trump’s win. But now, ETFs look cleaner. They give investors Bitcoin exposure without corporate risk, debt, or surprise dilution.

Meanwhile, Ether-backed treasury companies have already committed more than $19 billion. Bitcoin has pulled back from its recent high but still holds institutional interest.

The issue is that many new treasury firms bought Bitcoin above $100,000 and don’t have any real business to fall back on if the market flips.

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