Preços do petróleo sobem globalmente enquanto temores de oferta colidem com previsões de excesso
O mercado de petróleo está num cabo de guerra clássico — e os traders estão a pagar o preço.
De um lado, tens os fantasmas da geopolítica a assombrar os terminais de trading. Do outro, os analistas a apontar para os tanques de armazenamento a transbordar. O resultado? Uma volatilidade que faz o coração de qualquer gestor de risco acelerar.
A tensão que define o mercado
Não é sobre um único evento. É sobre a narrativa constante. Cada notícia de tensão num ponto de estrangulamento logístico envia um calafrio pelo mercado. Cada relatório de inventário acima das expectativas provoca um suspiro coletivo. Os preços sobem ligeiramente, não numa corrida alucinante, mas num rastejar cauteloso — como se ninguém quisesse comprometer-se totalmente com qualquer direção.
O jogo de adivinhação dos fornecedores
Aqui está a piada cínica do setor financeiro: os mesmos bancos que publicam relatórios prevendo um excesso de oferta são frequentemente os que lucram com a volatilidade que esses mesmos relatórios ajudam a criar. É um ciclo virtuoso para as suas mesas de trading, mesmo quando deixa os produtores e consumidores a arrancar os cabelos.
No fim do dia, o petróleo continua a ser o ativo definitivo de 'crise e pânico'. A subida ligeira de hoje não é um voto de confiança — é um sinal de um mercado profundamente indeciso, preso entre o medo do amanhã e a realidade abastada de hoje. Aposta em qual narrativa vencerá? Melhor ter estômago para isso.
Trump confirms seized Venezuelan oil will stay in U.S. hands
President Donald Trump on Monday confirmed that the U.S. will hold onto the crude oil and ships it seized off the coast of Venezuela. “We’re going to keep it,” Trump said in Palm Beach, right after launching a new class of battleships named after himself.
He didn’t stop there. “Maybe we’ll sell it, maybe we’ll keep it, maybe we’ll use it in the strategic reserve,” Trump said, adding, “We’re keeping the ships also.” That’s the new line in Washington’s blockade of sanctioned oil tankers going in and out of Venezuela. He’s putting more pressure on President Nicolas Maduro and using oil as leverage.
According to Kpler, the U.S. seized a massive tanker on December 10 hauling over 1 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. A second ship was intercepted last weekend. Trump confirmed a third vessel is now being pursued. “It’s moving along. We’ll end up getting it,” he said. “It came from the wrong location. It came out of Venezuela, and it was sanctioned.”
Venezuela, which has the largest proven oil reserves on the planet and helped found OPEC, is still exporting roughly 749,000 barrels a day, Kpler said. Over half of that oil is headed to China.
Gasoline prices drop ahead of record holiday travel
Meanwhile, the price at the pump keeps dropping in the U.S. The average cost of unleaded gas has stayed under $3 per gallon for most of December, the lowest since 2021, according to AAA. The group said this December could be the cheapest since 2020, back when the pandemic brought demand to a halt.
Fuel costs have dropped about 7% since last month and 43% from the mid-2022 high when prices were near $5 a gallon after inflation took off.
That’s good news for drivers, and there’s a lot of them. AAA expects a record-breaking 122 million Americans to travel at least 50 miles between December 20 and January 1. Out of that, 110 million will drive.
Lower gas prices could make a dent in holiday inflation, even if it’s not enough to make everyone cheerful.
A CNBC All-America Economic Survey found that over 40% of Americans plan to spend less this holiday season, a six-point rise from last year. Among those cutting back, 46% blamed high prices for food and goods.
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