ASML e Applied Materials em queda após comitê dos EUA apontar envolvimento em vendas de chips para China

As ações das gigantes de equipamentos semicondutores despencam após revelações bombásticas de um painel congressional norte-americano.

O impacto imediato

Investidores reagem rapidamente às alegações de que as empresas facilitaram vendas de tecnologia sensível para a China - mais um capítulo na guerra tecnológica entre as superpotências.

O contexto regulatório

Restrições crescentes ao comércio de chips avançados continuam criando ondas de choque nos mercados globais, enquanto Washington aperta o cerco à transferência de tecnologia.

As implicações financeiras

Os tradicionalmente estáveis papéis do setor de semicondutores mostram vulnerabilidade inesperada - porque nada abala mais os mercados do que reguladores determinados a provar um ponto. O setor descobre que, às vezes, a geopolítica corta mais fundo que as flutuações normais de mercado.

Chip makers implicated in US committee report 

ASML is the world’s only producer of cutting-edge lithography machines required to produce high-end chips used in electric vehicles and military gear. Unfortunately, the company has struggled to sell its most advanced machines to China because of US-led export restrictions. 

Last year, the Dutch government also restricted sales of ASML’s second-most advanced machines, immersion deep ultraviolet lithography systems, to China after getting pressured by the Biden administration. 

Despite the restrictions, China has emerged as ASML’s second-largest market after Taiwan, accounting for 27% of its net system sales in the second quarter, primarily through less advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) machines.

Applied Materials is projected to lose $710 million in revenue next year due to the new U.S. export rules expanding restrictions on Chinese clients, as China accounts for over a third of its revenue.

The committee wants President Donald Trump’s administration to “dramatically expand country-wide bans and licensing requirements” on tool exports to China. 

To be clear, the committee has no power to impose those restrictions on its own, and the US Commerce Department is not mandated to follow its recommendations. However, the call to action has raised concerns that further export bans are in the pipeline.

The semiconductor industry is caught between warring factions 

The battle over computer chips by the current world powers is intensifying and the semiconductor industry has been a major target. 

As tensions between China and the US ramp up, the industry continues to face greater restrictions and the fact that there is a new president in the White House has not changed that. 

In fact, last month, the US scrapped Biden-era authorizations that allowed ASML customers Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to transport supplies to Chinese factories without needing Washington’s permission each time.

This is because many lawmakers in the US believe that China’s advance in manufacturing chips “poses threats” to US national security. To that end the Trump administration has even taken a stake in struggling American chipmaker Intel Corp. in the hopes of supporting a national champion that can compete with Asia’s giant manufacturers on an equal footing. 

In the meantime, China has been playing catch up where cutting-edge chip technology is concerned, with the government pushing local tech companies to develop advanced AI processors that can compete with those produced by US giant Nvidia Corp.

Huawei is now building a shadow manufacturing network of semiconductor-fabrication facilities across the country. In September, it publicly laid out a three-year roadmap for chip development and unveiled new technology, from memory chips to AI accelerators, designed to compete with the most powerful Nvidia products. 

Also, despite the chip restrictions, Chinese companies have still been able to make strides in AI. In January, Hangzhou-based startup DeepSeek released an AI model that held its ground against the best offerings from US rivals OpenAI and Meta Platforms Inc. while boasting it was developed at a fraction of the cost. 

The breakthrough re-energized the Chinese tech community and was touted by national media as a monumental achievement in the face of US containment efforts.

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