Minutos do Fed confirmam que Powell e diretoria planejam cortar juros mais 2 vezes este ano

Banco Central americano sinaliza flexibilização monetária enquanto economia mostra resiliência

O que os cortes significam para os mercados

Mercados reagem com cautela aos sinais de accommodação, temendo que medidas muito agressivas reacendam pressões inflacionárias. Traders ajustam posições em ativos de risco, incluindo criptomoedas que tradicionalmente se beneficiam de ambientes de juros baixos.

Dois cortes ainda no horizonte - será que o Fed está subestimando a força real da economia americana? Ou apenas seguindo o roteiro padrão de sempre: prometer prudência enquanto imprime resiliência nos comunicados?

Officials argue over cuts and Miran breaks ranks, as expected

The September session showed just how split officials were on the path ahead. Out of 19 officials, including 12 voting members, a tight 10–9 majority supported cutting at both of the last two meetings of the year. Projections also pointed to one more cut in 2026 and another in 2027, before stabilizing long-term policy around 3%.

The meeting was the first for Governor Steve Miran, sworn in hours before talks began. Miran made himself the lone dissent by pushing for a half-point cut instead of the quarter-point that was approved. His vote was recorded in the post-meeting statement.

Later, Miran told reporters he was the lone “dot” on the forecast chart calling for a more aggressive path of easing compared with everyone else on the committee.

While Miran wanted deeper reductions, some argued for restraint. The minutes recorded, “Some participants noted that, by several measures, financial conditions suggested that monetary policy may not be particularly restrictive, which they judged as warranting a cautious approach in the consideration of future policy changes.”

Labor weakness, tariff debate, and shutdown risks

Concerns over jobs were central. Officials said the labor market was weakening while inflation risks had either stayed the same or decreased. They explained:

“Participants generally noted that their judgments about this meeting’s appropriate policy action reflected a change in the balance of risks. In particular, most participants observed that it was appropriate to move the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral setting because they judged that downside risks to employment had increased over the intermeeting period and that upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased.”

President Donald Trump’s tariffs also came up. The consensus was that his levies had raised prices this year but would not fuel lasting inflation. That cleared the way for more easing without fear of long-term price spikes.

Survey data from the Fed’s primary dealers backed the committee’s thinking. “Almost all respondents to the Desk survey expected a 25 basis point cut in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, and around half expected an additional cut at the October meeting,” the minutes said. “The vast majority of survey respondents expected at least two 25 basis point cuts by year-end, with around half expecting three cuts over that time.”

For the uninitiated, one basis point equals 0.01%, meaning 25 basis points equals 0.25%.

The shutdown in Washington was another challenge. With the Labor Department and Commerce Department closed, officials are not getting new updates on inflation, unemployment, or consumer spending.

The minutes warned that if the government is still closed by the October 28–29 meeting, the board will be “flying blind” with no new data to guide decisions.

Market expectations are clear despite the chaos. Pricing shows a near certainty of two more cuts this year, according to the CME FedWatchTool.

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