ASML enfrenta queda abrupta na China enquanto EUA intensificam pressão

A gigante holandesa de equipamentos de litografia ASML vê suas operações na China despencarem sob o peso das crescentes sanções americanas.

O cerco se fecha

As restrições tecnológicas lideradas pelos EUA estão forçando a ASML a recalcular drasticamente sua exposição ao mercado chinês - um movimento que revela quanto o setor de semicondutores global permanece refém de disputas geopolíticas.

Impacto em cascata

Enquanto os reguladores apertam o cerco, a empresa enfrenta cortes significativos em suas entregas para a China, com números que mostram uma contração acentuada nas vendas para a região. Os controles de exportação estão redesenhand o mapa da produção de chips mundial.

O jogo geopolítico dos semicondutores

Esta não é apenas sobre uma empresa - é sobre como as cadeias de suprimentos tecnológicas estão sendo refeitas em tempo real. A ASML, como fornecedora crítica de equipamentos para fabricação de chips, encontra-se no epicentro desta batalha.

Enquanto isso, em Wall Street, analistas já calculam quanto essa desaceleração vai impactar os lucros trimestrais - porque no final, tudo se resume aos números, não é mesmo?

ASML warns of sharp China drop as U.S. ramps pressure

CEO Christophe Fouquet said ASML expects a “significant” decline in Chinese customer sales next year. This is a warning shot. He also said in a video transcript that while AI is pushing new momentum into the business, China won’t carry the weight it once did:

“We expect customer demand and sales in China to decline significantly next year compared to 2024 and 2025.”

This is happening while U.S. lawmakers continue threatening even tighter export controls on chip gear, and Donald Trump keeps throwing tariff threats back into the mix. Ben Barringer, global tech analyst at Quilter Cheviot, told CNBC’s Europe Early Edition that,

“The news on China is a little concerning… the U.S. select committee is potentially considering more restrictions.”

Despite that, Barringer said the Q3 bookings figure was stable enough to calm markets.

“The bookings number has been quite volatile over this year, so a little bit of stability is, I think, quite good,” he said, adding that investors are starting to look beyond 2026 and focus more on 2027.

ASML’s biggest client, TSMC, is expected to report its earnings on Thursday. Everyone’s watching closely, especially since demand for AI-related compute infrastructure still hasn’t slowed. More strain in computing capacity could feed straight back into ASML’s lithography business.

ASML hits 7.5 billion euros in sales, eyes 9.8 billion for Q4

ASML reported €7.516 billion in net sales for Q3, just shy of LSEG’s €7.79 billion forecast, and net profit of €2.125 billion, slightly above expectations. Looking ahead, it forecast Q4 sales between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, and a gross margin between 51% and 53%.

For full-year 2025, it’s holding on to its previous call; revenue up about 15% compared to 2024, with a gross margin hovering around 52%.

The firm also reminded analysts it’s still Europe’s most valuable listed company, and it’s not backing off AI anytime soon.

“Strong news about commitment to AI has helped reduce some of the ongoing uncertainties,” Fouquet said.

“We also see that AI could create a lot of value in our products moving forward.”

ASML’s Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen added that their new partnership with French AI company Mistral is part of a wider plan to go deeper into the AI space:

“This is a way for us to get closer and closer to the AI world.”

On Wall Street, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Jefferies have all upgraded their ASML outlook. Morgan Stanley pointed to more AI foundry expansions, and UBS said stronger PC and phone sales, plus AI-driven memory demand, were creating upside. Meanwhile, Nvidia and Intel’s $5 billion supply deal is expected to drive more demand for ASML’s gear.

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