MicroStrategy plonge sous la valeur du Bitcoin : la fin d’une stratégie surévaluée ?
Le titre de MicroStrategy (MSTR) vient de franchir un seuil symbolique – son cours est désormais inférieur à celui du Bitcoin qu'il détient. Un désaveu cinglant pour la stratégie de Michael Saylor, pionnier des corporate treasuries crypto.
Les investisseurs institutionnels semblent enfin comprendre : pourquoi acheter le véhicule quand on peut posséder l'actif directement ? La prime de complexité s'évapore plus vite qu'un memecoin en bear market.
Reste à voir si cette correction marque un simple réalignement ou sonne le glas du playbook « Bitcoin par procuration ». Après tout, même les hedge funds les plus sophistiqués finissent par apprendre – la blockchain ne pardonne pas les stratégies fondées sur des raccourcis.
MSTR fell to $225.73, as the company’s market cap briefly dipped under the value of Strategy’s BTC holdings. | Source: Google Finance
The shares are down more than 73% in the year to date, while BTC still retains net gains of about 15%, and over 68% at its peak. Strategy still lists its mNAV metric at 1.23, but the common shares are now a worse investment compared to the price of BTC. Previously, MSTR traditionally responded by spiking even more during BTC rallies.
As MSTR fell, BTC also lost some of its previously regained price levels. BTC dipped again on Wednesday, losing the $105,000 level. The coin crashed to $101,983, causing another wave of long liquidations.
Is MSTR viable?
Just days before the recent price slide, Chanos & Co. closed its MSTR short position, signaling a return to confidence.
MSTR at the recently lower price may remain viable, as Strategy has shown a trend of using preferred shares instead of common stock. MSTR issuance may continue only above a certain price level, allowing more BTC purchases. Using the MSTR facility at a low price for current weekly purchases will only deepen the dilution.
MSTR prices remain closely linked to BTC with the recent downside. The playbook worked on the way up, but it proves challenging for the share price when the BTC rally stalls. The stock is also a proxy for speculative BTC demand, seeking a greater upside. With low demand for the stocks, the playbook buyers are signaling low confidence in BTC.
Open short interest for MSTR remained elevated in Q3, signaling even more caution around the stocks.
Short open interest for MSTR remained elevated in 2025, signaling a lowered confidence in Strategy’s playbook, as well as dilution from issuing more MSTR for routine BTC purchases. | Source: Market Beat
For Strategy, a low price for MSTR may mean a longer period of not using the common stock facility. During the 2025 cycle, MSTR dilution was faster than the initial plan, which aimed to extend the issuance until 2030.
BTC treasuries still grow, though at a slower pace
BTC treasuries have not shown signs of diminishing, and it takes 131 BTC to enter the top 100 companies.
Smaller companies have managed debt or other raises to buy limited amounts of BTC. Public companies now hold 1,055,266 BTC, with smaller weekly additions from Strategy. Sales of treasury funds are rare, and mostly come from companies that gained some of their BTC through mining.
Over 4M BTC is held in the wallets of large entities, as ETFs remain a large factor for demand. Despite this, the initial era of DAT companies trading at a premium seems to be over.
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