El BCE mantiene los tipos de interés en 2% mientras las amenazas arancelarias de Trump generan incertidumbre en los mercados

El Banco Central Europeo congela las tasas mientras la sombra de Trump se cierne sobre la economía global.

Política monetaria en espera

Los estrategas del BCE optan por la cautela, manteniendo el tipo de referencia en 2% ante un panorama geopolítico que se complica por momentos. La incertidumbre arancelaria desde Estados Unidos fuerza una pausa en cualquier movimiento alcista.

Mercados en modo de espera

Los inversores observan con nerviosismo cómo las tensiones comerciales podrían descarrilar la frágil recuperación económica. Mientras tanto, los tipos se mantienen en terreno neutral—ni estimulantes ni restrictivos—en lo que algunos analistas llaman 'la calma tensa antes de la tormenta comercial'.

Por supuesto, los banqueros centrales siempre encuentran excusas para no mover sus piezas—justo cuando más necesitamos decisión en este circo financiero global.

Trump’s threats shake economic outlook

The bigger problem is the chaos coming from outside Europe. The ECB made its decision while global uncertainty keeps building. Yes, inflation seems fine. But the rest of the economy? Not so much. The euro zone barely grew in Q2, just 0.1%, down from 0.6% the quarter before.

And while the ECB pretends it’s in control, growth is still being pulled down by forces far beyond its policy tools.

Europe and the U.S. signed a trade agreement in July, which slapped a 15% blanket tariff on EU exports heading to the U.S. That mostly helped sectors like pharma, but others (especially wine and spirits) were left hanging.

Then came Trump.

He threatened retaliation against the EU after Brussels hit Google with a $3.45 billion fine. Now markets are bracing for another round of tit-for-tat tariffs. And every new headline makes the ECB’s job harder.

So while the bank talks about inflation being stable, there’s more going on underneath. They’re not saying it outright, but the mood is tense. There’s no commitment to future hikes or cuts.

The approach is now officially “meeting-by-meeting,” which is central bank code for we have no clue what’s next. Add a strong euro and rising global competition, and suddenly this rate pause looks more like hesitation than strategy.

ECB staff raise growth forecast, tweak inflation path

What people really focused on Thursday wasn’t the rate decision; it was the projections and Lagarde’s press conference. And here’s what came out of that: inflation is expected to average 2.1% in 2025, then fall to 1.7% in 2026 and rise slightly to 1.9% in 2027.

That’s not far off from June’s forecast, which had 2% for 2025, 1.6% for 2026, and 2% for 2027. Not exactly a major change. Core inflation, which ignores food and energy, is seen holding steady at 2.4% this year, same as the previous projection.

On the growth side, the update was slightly more upbeat. The ECB now sees 1.2% growth in 2025, up from the 0.9% it expected in June. The 2026 outlook was pulled down to 1%. And for this year, Lagarde gave the clearest snapshot so far.

“The economy grew by 0.7% in cumulative terms over the first half of the year on account of the resilience in domestic demand,” she said.

But she wasn’t exactly cheerful about the months ahead. “Higher tariffs, a stronger euro and increased global competition are expected to hold growth back for the rest of the year,” Christine warned. Still, she added, “the effect of these headwinds on growth should fade next year.”

That’s the line they’re sticking with. Whether it holds or not is anyone’s guess.

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