Los traders apuestan por recortes de tasas mientras la Fed combate la inflación

Mercados anticipan giro de la Fed mientras la inflación persiste

Estrategias en juego

Los operadores posicionan carteras para el esperado pivote monetario—apuestas alcistas en activos de riesgo mientras la Fed mantiene su retórica hawkish. El diferencial entre las expectativas del mercado y el discurso oficial se amplía día a día.

Realidad vs. retórica

La Reserva Federal insiste en mantener tasas altas, pero los mercados de futuros priced in recortes para el primer trimestre del 2026. Los bonos del Tesoro reflejan esta divergencia, con rendimientos que oscilan ante cada dato económico.

El juego de expectativas

Los traders navegan entre datos de empleo contradictorios y señales inflacionarias persistentes. La Fed juega al juego de la credibilidad—promete mantener la disciplina mientras los mercados apuestan por su pronto ablandamiento. Como siempre en finanzas: sigue el dinero, no los comunicados oficiales.

Traders bet on rate cuts as Fed fights inflation

Bond traders are now piling into bets that the Federal Reserve will go on a rate-cutting spree starting this month. They’re pricing in a 0.25% cut at the September 16–17 meeting, and maybe two more by the end of the year.

Weak job numbers and calm producer prices have pushed them into this corner. But the real trigger is inflation. The consumer price index report coming Thursday is expected to show core inflation still sitting well above the Fed’s so-called target. That has Wall Street on edge.

Over the past month, yields on 2-year U.S. Treasuries fell to the lowest since April, showing how bullish traders have gotten. Maybe too bullish. If that CPI report runs hot, all those bets could flip upside down real fast.

For now, the markets think the Federal Reserve will go beyond neutral, meaning they’ll cut rates to a point where monetary policy stimulates the economy, not slows it down.

That shift is wild. Just a year ago, traders weren’t this confident. Inflation was sticky, and no one believed the Fed would slash rates this deeply. Now, it’s the default bet. The broader feeling is that Powell and his crew will have to slash fast to dodge a recession.

Trump slams Powell while Wall Street eyes Fed independence

President Donald Trump hasn’t kept quiet. He’s been hammering Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being too slow to cut rates, trying to steer the Federal Reserve from the sidelines.

“There’s also some of the political economy here… it seems obvious that a requirement for a job at the Fed now is that you are going to cut interest rates, and by a lot,” said Benson Durham, Piper Sandler’s global asset allocation head and former Fed insider.

Matthew Hornbach, the macro chief at Morgan Stanley, added that fears about the economy are growing fast. He said he believes investors will drive markets to price in a trough policy rate from the Fed well below the September 2024 nadir.” For context, that nadir was about 2.7%, traders now expect it to go even lower, according to data from Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf says he “absolutely” supports the Federal Reserve’s independence, even as Trump shouts from the rooftops.

Charlie told CNBC’s Squawk Box that Fed leaders have fixed terms that don’t match political cycles, so they should stick to their own decisions. But he admitted, “The administration is entitled to be vocal about it,” and “Trump happens to be very vocal.”

Meanwhile, markets expect the Fed to lower interest rates at its September 17 meeting, after recent inflation data came in lighter than expected and the labor market shows signs of trouble. CME FedWatch currently calculates a 90% chance the central bank will cut 25 basis points, and a 10% chance it’ll cut 50 basis points.

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