Bitcoin’s chance of hitting $125K by June rises as traders bid on upside: Derive

Bitcoin has lingered below the psychological $100,000 level for seven days, but a crypto researcher says there’s a nearly 50% chance it will surge to $125,000 by late June.

The chance of Bitcoin ( BTC ) hitting $125,000 by the middle of this year “has improved to 44.4%, up from 41.9%,” onchain options protocol Derive head of research Dr. Sean Dawson said in a Feb. 13 markets report.

Bitcoin odds for a major downside are much lower

Dawson added that the chance of BTC touching $75,000 before June had dropped to 12.1%, down from 17.8%. Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is more bearish on the downside.

Hayes predicted last month that Bitcoin could potentially pull back toward the $70,000 to $75,000 range , a move he said may trigger a “mini financial crisis.”

Bitcoin last traded around $75,000 on Nov. 8, just three days after US President Donald Trump won the election — a moment widely seen as the catalyst for a month-long rally that pushed Bitcoin to $100,000 for the first time on Dec. 5.

Bitcoin is trading at $96,790 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $96,790, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin has been trading below $100,000 since Feb. 7. Bitcoin briefly tapped a new all-time high of $109,000 on Jan. 20, prior to Trump’s inauguration.

Market sentiment “Neutral,” chop may continue

Crypto trader Jelle said that until Bitcoin reclaims $100,000, “choppy conditions” will remain.

The crypto market sentiment measuring Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows sentiment on Feb. 14 was “Neutral” with a score of 48 out of a total possible of 100.

Asset manager VanEck said in December that the bull market will hit a “medium-term peak” in the first quarter of 2025 before surging to all-time highs by the end of the year .

It projected that “at the cycle’s apex,” Bitcoin would trade at around $180,000 while ETH would trade above $6,000.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.