Bitcoin’s Bull Run Stalls: 38% Momentum Drop Post-ATH – Cooling Off or Crash Warning?

Bitcoin’s rocket-fueled rally hits turbulence as price momentum plunges 38% from its all-time high peak. Traders now face the million-satoshi question: is this just a healthy breather before the next leg up, or the first crack in crypto’s bullish facade?

The king of crypto’s recent cooldown has analysts split—some see a textbook consolidation, others spot worrying parallels to past bull traps. Meanwhile, Wall Street ’experts’ who missed the entire run-up suddenly have strong opinions about proper valuation metrics.

One thing’s certain: in crypto markets, even corrections move at lightning speed. Whether this dip gets bought or turns into a cliff depends on whether the smart money sees blood in the water or a discount bin.

Bitcoin Faces Crucial Test Amid Recession Fears

Bitcoin is entering a pivotal phase as it trades above the $110K level, facing both macroeconomic headwinds and growing investor optimism. While fears of an impending recession and tighter financial conditions continue to dominate headlines, Bitcoin’s price action tells a different story—one of strength and resilience. In fact, BTC has steadily climbed higher despite rising bond yields, weakening equity markets, and widespread uncertainty, highlighting its evolving role as a hedge against traditional market instability.

However, for this bullish narrative to hold, Bitcoin must decisively break above the $115,000 level. Doing so WOULD confirm the start of a new impulsive leg upward and potentially attract more institutional capital as the asset enters full price discovery mode. Until then, BTC remains in a critical zone that could define its trend for the coming weeks.

According to top analyst Axel Adler, the current rally has naturally decelerated, with momentum slowing by 38% following the all-time high breakout. Adler explains this as a “technical cooldown,” a normal pattern where the market consolidates or pauses after reaching major milestones. This “breather” allows Leveraged positions to unwind, liquidity to reset, and investor sentiment to stabilize before a potential next leg higher.

Despite macro concerns, the price structure remains firmly bullish, and short-term consolidation may ultimately strengthen the foundation for another surge. If BTC can maintain current levels and absorb overhead resistance, the path toward $120K could come sooner than expected. Until then, all eyes remain on Bitcoin’s behavior at the $115K barrier—a critical mark that could define whether this rally has more fuel or if a correction is due.

BTC Holds Above $111K: Momentum Slows After Breakout

The 4-hour chart for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) reveals a strong uptrend, with price currently consolidating around $111,000 after reaching a new all-time high at $111,356. Price action remains bullish, holding above the 34 EMA (green), 50 SMA (blue), and key support levels at $103,600 and $100,000. This structure indicates a healthy continuation pattern, where BTC is taking a breather after an explosive rally from below $100K.

Volume has tapered slightly, supporting CryptoQuant’s insight that momentum has cooled by 38%—a normal pause after reaching new highs. Moving averages are sharply upward-sloping, with the 200 SMA (red) far below current price, reflecting strong bullish momentum and wide separation from longer-term trends.

The current consolidation zone resembles a flag or pennant formation, which typically precedes another leg up if buyers step in with volume. However, traders should monitor any sharp drop below $107K, which would signal fading momentum and increase the risk of a correction toward the $103,600 support.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView