Raydium Eyes $4 Breakout – But Market Realities Might Hit the Snooze Button

Solana’s hottest DEX token flirts with a key resistance level—until liquidity crunches and trader impatience crash the party.

Why the hype?

Raydium’s 30% monthly surge has degens whispering ’next SOL’—never mind that most couldn’t explain its automated market maker mechanics if their Lambo deposits depended on it.

The roadblocks:

Thin order books above $3.80 show more gaps than a crypto VC’s due diligence process. And with Bitcoin playing ping-pong at $60K, altcoins remain at the mercy of macro mood swings.

Watch for a clean close above $3.95 to confirm momentum. Otherwise? Another ’any day now’ story in the DeFi casino.

Raydium to test $4 next, but can it break through?

Source: RAY/USDT on TradingView

On the 1-day chart, Raydium has a bullish market structure. It has breached a significant lower high set during early March. In doing so, the swing structure of Raydium on the 1-day chart was flipped bullishly.

This previous lower high was $2.85. On Saturday the 10th of May, the price surged past this local resistance, and two days later, retested is as support before bounding higher. However, its ascent came with a challenge.

The Awesome Oscillator has not formed a new higher high, even though the price broke $2.85 first, and was not nearing the $4 resistance.

This bearish divergence could see RAY unable to challenge $4, or unable to break this resistance on the first try. The CMF was above +0.05, a sign of strong buying pressure.

Source: RAY/USDT on TradingView

On the 4-hour chart, the capital inflow has not been as swift or sure. The CMF was at -0.02, and had dipped to -0.26 just 36 hours before the time of writing.

Hence, even though the Awesome Oscillator showed bullish momentum, a lack of demand could stall further gains.

Source: Coinalyze

Data from Coinalyze showed speculative interest. The Open Interest surged from $7.8 million to $11.26 million within a day as Raydium climbed past the $3.2 local resistance.

The Funding Rate was positive, and alongside the rising Open Interest, showed bullish market expectations in the short-term.

However, the 1-day bearish divergence could stall the rally or induce a pullback from the $4 resistance.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion