OpenAI Targets Year-End IPO as Rivalry with Anthropic Intensifies
The AI arms race just got a Wall Street price tag.
OpenAI is gunning for a public debut before the calendar flips—pushing its valuation into the stratosphere as its battle with Anthropic moves from research papers to quarterly earnings calls. This isn't just about smarter chatbots; it's a land grab for the operating system of everything, and the public markets are the next battlefield.
The Timeline Tightrope
Hitting a year-end IPO target is a brutal sprint. It means finalizing audits, charming regulators, and roadshowing to investors—all while your main competitor releases a model that makes your flagship look last-gen. One delayed product launch, one regulatory hiccup, and that window slams shut. The clock is ticking louder than a GPU fan at full load.
Why Go Public Now?
Simple: war chests need refilling. The compute costs for the next generation of models are astronomical. An IPO isn't an exit—it's a weaponization of capital. It lets you outspend, out-hire, and out-scale. For Anthropic, it turns every OpenAI earnings report into a report card they didn't want published. The pressure shifts from pure R&D to stock tickers and shareholder letters.
The Investor Calculus
Wall Street will have to price not just current revenue, but the intangible: the chance to own a piece of the company that might build the first true AGI. That's a bet that makes crypto volatility look tame. They'll also have to swallow the classic tech narrative—huge losses today for world domination tomorrow. Just don't ask about the path to profitability; it's somewhere between 'soon' and 'when we automate all jobs.'
This sets a fascinating precedent. The most transformative—and arguably most dangerous—technology of our time is heading for the NYSE. Get ready for AI earnings calls where CEOs can't explain how their own models work. The ultimate black box is going public. Let's see if the market can handle the truth—or if it just likes the story.
OpenAI executives express concern about Anthropic’s competition
Despite Altman’s half-hearted support for OpenAI’s public listing, the company’s executives have expressed concerns about losing to Anthropic in the race for an IPO. Part of the reason OpenAI’s executives are this worried is that Anthropic was founded by former OpenAI leaders, and it has already told its financial partners it is open to a public listing by the end of the year.
Both OpenAI and Anthropic are also competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which is also aiming for a Summer IPO. SpaceX is hoping to raise over $1 trillion in the IPO, while OpenAI aims to raise over $100 billion in a pre-IPO round that would value the AI firm at $830 billion.
Meanwhile, Softbank is also discussing investing nearly $30 billion in OpenAI, and Amazon has already held talks with the AI company for an investment of up to $50 billion. OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy are personally steering the negotiations. Other companies reportedly considering investing up to $40 billion in OpenAI include Microsoft and Nvidia.
On the other hand, Anthropic is in the process of raising a funding round that is likely to surpass its initial $10 billion target. The company has also held discussions with banks interested in helping with its IPO.
Anthropic follows OpenAI’s covert finance hiring
Similar to OpenAI’s strategy, Anthropic has also made several finance department hires behind the scenes in preparation for the anticipated end-of-year IPO. Anthropic has hired Andrew Zloto to lead capital markets and Blackstone investor Kevin Chang, whose employment has not been officially announced.
However, media reports suggest that both Anthropic and OpenAI are losing billions of dollars annually as they work to power existing products and build new AI models. Meanwhile, Anthropic is expected to break even for the first time in 2028, approximately two years ahead of OpenAI.
Therefore, whichever company lists first will probably benefit from a large number of public market investors. Individual investors seeking exposure to generative AI companies are also expected to participate in large numbers.
“We’re going to get into a period of potentially unprecedented I.P.O. deal sizes…But we are confident they’re executable given the scale of these companies and the investor interest.”
–Eddie Molloy, Global co-head of equity capital markets at Morgan Stanley
Molloy also believes that these listings could trigger a “feeding frenzy” among public market investors who have been waiting to gain from the AI boom. His sentiment is supported by Jeremy Abelson, an investor at Irvin Investors, who notes that it is the first time in 20 years that private companies have been this impactful and meaningful.
Meanwhile, Renaissance Capital observes that IPOs have been in a slump since 2021, when nearly 397 companies in the U.S. raised over $142 billion. It also notes that roughly 202 companies went public in the U.S. in 2025, raising $44 billion. However, this momentum has been affected by the uncertainty around tariffs.
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