Moreno warnt: Bitcoin befindet sich noch in Verteilungsphase – Keine Akkumulation in Sicht
Bitcoin hält die Märkte in Atem – doch ein prominenter Analyst sieht keine Trendwende. Statt Akkumulation dominiert weiterhin die Distribution.
Die Verteilungsdynamik
Große Spieler nutzen jede Rallye, um Positionen zu reduzieren. Das klassische Muster institutioneller Akkumulation bleibt aus – stattdessen fließt Liquidität in andere Assets. Ein klarer Hinweis darauf, dass Vertrauen in nachhaltige Kursgewinne fehlt.
Marktimplikationen
Diese Phase verlängert die Konsolidierung und drückt auf die Volatilität. Für Trader bedeutet das: Engere Handelsbereiche und weniger spektakuläre Bewegungen. Die typische Finanzwelt-Logik – kaufen wenn alle verkaufen – funktioniert hier nicht.
Zynische Finanzrealität
Während traditionelle Banken mit ihren 0,01% Sparzinsen prahlen, zeigt Bitcoin wie echte Vermögensumverteilung funktioniert – nur eben gerade in die falsche Richtung. Ein Lehrstück darüber, dass auch dezentrale Märkte menschlichen Herdeninstinkten folgen.
Die nächsten Wochen entscheiden, ob diese Verteilungsphase in echte Akkumulation umschwingt – oder ob die großen Player weiterhin ihre Chips vom Tisch nehmen.
Moreno says Bitcoin is still distributing their assets instead of accumulating
Moreno noted that adjusted data show that large holders are still in distribution mode, and not accumulation. The data also shows a continued drop in whale holdings, alongside falling balances among 100–1,000 BTC addresses, suggesting ETF outflows persist.
Large holders typically make significant changes in the Bitcoin price; however, the market structure is adapting with the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have become substantial market participants. Aside from questions about whale accumulation, sentiment among long-term BTC holders has improved, as indicated by other onchain metrics.
According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, long-term Bitcoin holders have once again begun buying after suffering the biggest selling period in years. The trend suggests that the recent selling pressure on BTC might be beginning to ease. The recovery of Bitcoin remains tentative, although downside pressure to date hasn’t forced prices back to the sub-$80,000 range seen in November. BTC is currently trading just above the $90,000 mark.
Nonetheless, Bollinger Bands, a key volatility gauge, suggest that a major price swing may be imminent.TradingView data shows Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands—the volatility bands set two standard deviations above and below the 20-day moving average—have tightened to under $3,500, the narrowest since July.
Back in late July, a Bollinger Band squeeze capped a two-week consolidation between $115,000 and $120,000, marking the start of a three-month price expansion that ranged from $100,000 to $126,000. A similar pattern emerged in late February, with Bitcoin consolidating between $94,000 and $98,000 before a Bollinger Band squeeze preceded a decline to $80,000.
Kim says Bitcoin will surpass $270,000 by February 2026
The social media predictor and self-proclaimed world’s smartest man, Kim, recently predicted that BTC could jump past $270,000 within a month next year. According to reports, the predictor cited both the growth and fragility of fiat currencies as reasons for his optimistic outlook, noting Bitcoin’s historical volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic trends.
The social media personality has made several Bitcoin forecasts in the past that have not held up. He predicted in November that Bitcoin WOULD more than double to $220,000 within 45 days, pledging any future profits toward church construction, yet the price surge never materialized.
In addition to his bullish calls, Kim said BTC could replace the US dollar by 2026, labeling the current low as a short-term, manipulation-driven discount.
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