Gigantes de Wall Street como BlackRock e PGIM continuam apostando em Treasuries de médio prazo

Os tubarões de Wall Street não largam os títulos do Tesouro.

Estratégia consolidada

BlackRock e PGIM mantêm posições agressivas nos mid-curve Treasuries - aquela zona confortável entre 2 e 10 anos que oferece rendimento sem o drama dos prazos longos. Enquanto retail se distrai com modinhas, os grandes players sabem onde está o dinheiro de verdade.

Fuga para qualidade?

Com volatilidade nos mercados globais, os Treasuries continuam sendo o porto seguro preferido dos institucionais. Os yields podem não ser sexy, mas a liquidez e segurança ainda batem qualquer crypto por aí - pelo menos até a próxima crise fiscal.

BlackRock and PGIM target the belly for carry and cushion

BlackRock’s deputy chief investment officer for global fixed income, Russell Brownback, said the focus is still on the five-year part of the curve. “The belly is the sweet spot,” he said. It’s been one of the best performers this year. A Bloomberg index tracking 5- to 7-year Treasuries shows a return of 7%, better than the broader bond market’s 5.4% gain.

Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income, explained why. These mid-curve Treasuries pay enough interest to make money even when using borrowed funds. That’s called positive carry. And as the bonds get closer to maturity, their value goes up. “Positive carry and roll: it’s the bond investor’s dream,” he said.

The Fed’s decision came as signs of economic weakness kept building. Job growth slowed down in recent months, and companies are still reacting to President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war. At the same time, his tariff increases risk pushing prices even higher. Inflation is already stuck above the Fed’s 2% target. That’s why Powell said future decisions would be made “meeting by meeting.” Nothing is guaranteed anymore, and everyone knows it.

Mid-curve bonds hold ground while short bets unwind

Christian Hoffmann, a portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management, said the market doesn’t know how to read the Fed anymore. “It’s increasingly difficult to draw a straight line from the evolution of the data to the Fed’s reaction,” he said. He expects lower rates long term, but he’s also prepared for more confusion in the near term.

The Fed’s own projections show possible quarter-point cuts over the next two meetings. But after that, only tiny changes are expected in 2026 and 2027.

Traders in the futures market are betting on more. The disconnect is already affecting trades. At Natixis, the strategy team shut down their long two-year Treasuries position right after Powell’s press conference.

Andrew Szczurowski, who runs the $12 billion Eaton Vance Strategic Income Fund at Morgan Stanley, thinks the market is closer to reality than the Fed’s guesses. His fund returned 9.5% this year, beating 98% of peers.

He believes the Fed will try to protect jobs by keeping rates low. That would help Treasuries rise further. “You missed some of the rally, but there’s still upside,” he told his clients. “It’s a bond picker’s market.”

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