Investidores de varejo da China retornam às ações enquanto outros ativos despencam

Os pequenos investidores chineses estão migrando massivamente para o mercado acionário - enquanto imóveis, títulos e commodities continuam em queda livre.

Fuga para a segurança relativa

Com o setor imobiliário em colapso e renda fixa oferecendo retornos risíveis, as ações surgem como o mal menor. A FSA registra influxo recorde de contas de varejo abertas no último trimestre.

O timing perfeito - ou o pior possível?

Os retalhistas sempre chegam tarde na festa, compram no topo e seguram a queda. Desta vez não será diferente - os tubarões já estão realizando lucros enquanto os peixinhos entram na água.

O velho ciclo se repete: quando todas as outras portas se fecham, sobram apenas as ações. Pelo menos até a próxima bolha estourar.

Banks cut rates, bonds disappoint, homes lose shine

Five-year fixed savings accounts at the country’s top four banks are paying around 1.3%. That’s down from 2.75% in 2020. If you go for demand deposits, it’s worse—0.05% a year. The once-popular Tianhong Yu’E Bao money-market fund, managing around $110 billion, is returning just 1.1%, half of what it gave investors earlier this year.

Bonds aren’t making up for it either. The people holding Chinese government debt have seen more red than green this year. Yields might be climbing, but they’re still trash. The 10-year benchmark sits at 1.80%, compared to a five-year average of 2.58%. On top of that, the government is taxing interest on bonds again. It’s just one more reason for people to pull out.

Property was once the golden goose. Not anymore. The sector is four years deep into a slump. Most families already own more than one home. Buying another doesn’t make sense—especially when developers can’t even finish what they’ve already sold.

President Xi Jinping has made it clear that “houses are for living, not for speculation.” That message has landed. China International Corporation Corp says real estate now makes up 58% of household wealth, down from 74% in 2021. Over the same period, exposure to stocks and high-risk financial products rose to 15%, up from 9%.

Wealth products slow down, foreign stocks out of reach

Wealth management products (WMPs) are tanking too. The average annualized return on both fixed-income and mixed-strategy WMPs is now under 3%, based on recent performance.

That’s two straight years of weak payouts. Life insurance is no better. Some of Ping An Insurance’s universal policies used to give 4.3% returns. Now it’s 2.5%.

Some investors have looked abroad, especially toward U.S. tech. But China’s capital controls block that path. Locals can only convert $50,000 per year into foreign currency.

Even funds that allow access to global stocks are capped. And if you do manage to invest abroad, get ready to hand over 20% of your earnings in taxes. That tax, paired with strict limits, makes overseas bets painful.

So, here’s where things stand. Investors are boxed in. All the safe options are giving garbage returns. The exciting ones are locked behind red tape.

That leaves stocks—local ones—as the only thing still breathing. Analysts say most investors will probably keep piling into China’s market because there’s nowhere else to go.

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