Oracle atinge zona de preços temida da bolha pontocom enquanto Wall Street observa

A Oracle Corporation está a navegar perigosamente perto dos níveis de avaliação que definiram o pico insustentável da bolha pontocom - e os traders estão a ficar sem unhas.

Os fantasmas de 2000

A ação da empresa de software está a aproximar-se dos máximos históricos que precederam o colapso do mercado de tecnologia há 25 anos. Os analistas estão divididos: alguns veem fundamentos sólidos, outros preveem déjà vu doloroso.

Wall Street em modo de vigilância

Os grandes fundos estão a monitorizar cada movimento, com os relatórios de earnings a serem escrutinados ao pormenor. A pergunta que paira no ar: será que a Oracle aprendeu com os erros do passado ou está a repeti-los com convicção?

Os céticos da FSA já sussurram sobre 'valuation stretching' enquanto os bulls apontam para as receitas cloud. Porque é que os mercados nunca aprendem? Até os bancos centrais parecem estar a fazer 'yolo' com políticas monetárias.

Oracle’s future profits raise valuation questions

ORCL now trades at 43 times estimated earnings, the highest level since the early 2000s. That puts it above every major tech name in the S&P 500 except one. Nvidia, which is actually pulling in profits today, trades at 31 times forward earnings.

The difference? Oracle’s growth is based on what might happen in 2027 and 2028, not what’s showing up in this fiscal year.

Michael Bailey, director of research at Fulton Breakefield Broenniman, said, “Investors viewed Oracle as a boring low growth company, and all of a sudden it’s an AI winner. But you’ve got a lot of risk. You’re buying the stock now based on hope that we’re going to see massive growth in year four, five and six.”

The problem is, analysts haven’t adjusted their forecasts for this year or the next. That makes the stock look expensive on paper right now. But when you stretch the numbers across three years, the valuation drops to 25 times profits. That’s still way above Oracle’s ten-year average, but at least it’s not nosebleed.

Bailey added, “This year is irrelevant, next year is irrelevant, the year after that is more important. If you go out a few years, there’s going to be this massive spike in growth. You’ve got to value that today.”

Wall Street stays bullish but flags the risks

Oracle’s long game might sound like a moonshot, but it’s not the only one playing it. Tesla and Palantir are both trading at over 180 times forward earnings, even though they’re in very different sectors. And even when stretched over three years, those names still sit around 100 times earnings, making Oracle’s 25x seem mild.

But those are edge cases. Even Nvidia, which has been a poster child for the AI wave, is only trading at 24 times expected earnings over three years. And unlike Oracle, Nvidia’s revenue is hitting now — 58% growth this year, 33% next, then 17% in 2027.

Oracle’s revenue path is slower: 17% growth this year, 22% in 2027, and a huge 42% jump in 2028, based on Bloomberg analyst estimates.

That delayed growth is exactly what’s making people cautious. It’s not about whether Oracle gets the contracts. It’s about whether the end clients, the companies using these AI tools, actually turn that tech into value fast enough.

Sameer Bhasin, principal at Value Point Capital, said, “The issue isn’t Oracle not getting the business, it’s the end customer, will they get the benefit out of it as fast as the market assumes?” He pointed to the dot-com era, when everyone was laying fiber cables but returns were negative.

Despite all of that, the analysts aren’t backing off. Out of 47 analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 34 say buy, 13 say hold, and zero have a sell rating on ORCL.

Tyler Radke at Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy after its September earnings release, citing a stronger growth path as reason enough to pay a higher valuation.

In his note dated September 10, he wrote that Oracle shares “still have upside from here with top/bottom-line growth significantly accelerating in the years ahead.”

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