Altseason Chegando: Ativos Superaquecem Enquanto Mercado se Prepara para Nova Corrida

Os primeiros sinais de superaquecimento já aparecem no mercado de criptomoedas—e desta vez parece diferente.

Altcoins disparam enquanto investidores buscam retornos além do Bitcoin. O momentum cresce a cada semana, com volumes negociados batendo recordes históricos.

Especialistas alertam: cuidado com a euforia excessiva

Os padrões lembram 2017 e 2021, mas com maturidade institucional. Fundos tradicionais agora participam—mesmo que ainda não entendam a tecnologia por trás.

O que vem pela frente? Mais volatilidade, mais ganhos explosivos e, claro, mais correções dolorosas. Porque no mundo cripto, até os analistas de Wall Street viram apostadores.

Altcoin seasons switch direction without warning

The raw index based on the current top 100 assets is extremely unpredictable. After hovering sideways for months, the index took just days to enter overheated territory. The index touched the overheated territory at 80 points, then returned to 78 points. 

Historically, altcoin seasons have often arrived with a steep climb and a brief peak, which lasts for 1-3 weeks before deep drawdowns and corrections. This has left many investors either with losses or a habit of avoiding altcoins altogether. 

Altcoins also have varying price pressures, different for VC-backed projects, memes, utility tokens, and coins. For that reason, Market Vector recommended using indexes for exposure to altcoins. 

Indexes smooth out the fluctuations in crypto

Market Vector has produced multiple indexes, which combine exposure to BTC and relevant altcoins. The recommendation for exposure to altcoins is to choose an index with selected altcoins. 

Market Vector recalculates its indexes quarterly, removing irrelevant or underperforming assets. This means even if an altcoin or token rallies during one period, it would be removed if it wipes out all gains. 

Indexes also mean an investor is not stuck holding underperforming assets, while missing out on other opportunities. Some altcoins and tokens offer only short-term rallies, later drifting sideways for relatively long periods. 

Market Vector recommends choosing Coinbase 50 (Coin50) or a similar index. The market product tracks the performance of BTC, but offers outsized gains during altcoin rallies. However, the index has a lower risk on the downside, due to the effect of BTC. 

The index takes into account the fact that even if an altcoin season ends, BTC can still outperform and compensate for losses. However, a broader selection of tokens can tap the “long tail of growth.” 

Adding BTC and the leading blue-chip tokens into an index leads to better performance during altcoin seasons. According to Market Vector, even five of the leading coins capture most of the upside of the altcoin season. Adding the top 50 assets offers even bigger outside gains, with similar risk-adjusted returns. The key to index returns is also the removal of irrelevant, unsustainable assets, which can sway investors and lead to unrecoverable losses. 

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