Mercado de títulos dos EUA dispara após dados fracos de empregos, com rendimento de 10 anos no mais baixo desde abril

Os títulos do Tesouro disparam enquanto investidores fogem para segurança—o fraco relatório de empregos de setembro derruba expectativas do Fed.

Fuga para qualidade

O rendimento dos títulos de 10 anos despenca para mínimos de cinco meses enquanto capital migra massivamente para ativos seguros. O mercado reage ao sinal mais claro de desaceleração econômica desde o início do ano.

O Fed encurralado

Policymakers enfrentam agora o dilema definitivo: continuar combatendo inflação ou aliviar pressão sobre uma economia que mostra fissuras evidentes. Os mercados já apostam em pivot mais cedo que o previsto.

Os mesmos gestores que previram 'transitória' agora recalibram modelos—porque em finanças, ninguém erra duas vezes… certo?

Inflation data and jobs report hammer the 10-year yield

The Federal Reserve is currently in its usual media blackout ahead of its next decision. But that hasn’t stopped the speculation from flying. Deutsche Bank economists said in a note Monday that these CPI and PPI numbers will directly affect pricing outlooks, especially with all the noise around tariffs.

Ed Yardeni, who runs Yardeni Research, said this inflation data could stir debate over how fast the Fed keeps cutting or holding steady.

Now let’s zoom out. Over the past week, bond markets worldwide have been under pressure. Yields on long-term debt kept climbing… except in the US.

Last Friday, the 10-year yield sank to its lowest since April, after new jobs data showed slower hiring in August than expected.

Mislav Matejka from JPMorgan said:

“Taking away the knee-jerk yields crash seen around the ‘Liberation Day’ de-risking, current U.S. 10-year at sub 4.1% is at lows of the year. We think this is set to continue, partly due to softening labor market data flow.”

Compare that to what’s happening abroad. Yields in Japan and the UK are on fire. The Japanese 30-year bond just hit a record high. The U.K.’s 30-year touched levels not seen in 27 years. And for a moment last week, the U.S. 30-year itself peeked above 5%, the highest since July. But that surge didn’t last.

So now, everyone’s staring down Thursday’s CPI like it’s the Super Bowl of inflation reports. If it comes in softer than expected, we’re probably looking at more downward pressure on Treasury yields. If it’s too hot, all bets are off.

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