Bank of America e JPMorgan Antecipam Fim do Quantitative Tightening do Fed para Próxima Semana

Wall Street em Alerta: Gigantes Financeiros Preveem Mudança Radical na Política Monetária

O que os bancos estão vendo que o mercado ainda não percebeu?

Bank of America e JPMorgan Chase - dois dos maiores players do sistema financeiro global - acabam de ajustar suas projeções de forma dramática. Ambos agora esperam que o Federal Reserve encerre seu programa de quantitative tightening já na próxima reunião, um movimento que chega significativamente mais cedo do que o planejado originalmente.

Mudança de Rota Forçada

Os analistas dessas instituições detectaram sinais suficientes para justificar essa revisão abrupta. O timing antecipado sugere que as condições econômicas podem estar se deteriorando mais rapidamente do que os indicadores oficiais mostram - ou talvez o Fed finalmente esteja admitindo que apertou demais a torneira monetária.

Implicações para os Mercados

Esse movimento representaria uma reversão completa na postura do banco central americano, potencialmente injetando liquidez fresca nos mercados exatamente quando mais precisam. Para os céticos, é mais uma prova de que os bancos centrais estão sempre um passo atrás da realidade - fecham a torneira quando já estamos com sede e a abrem quando já estamos encharcados.

O Fed está prestes a mostrar suas cartas, e os maiores bancos do país já estão fazendo suas apostas.

Powell says reserves are nearly at ‘ample’ level

Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t leave much doubt earlier this month. He said the balance sheet runoff would stop when reserves are “somewhat above” the level considered ample, meaning just high enough to prevent a market crash.

“We may approach that point in coming months,” Powell said in his speech. That was all traders needed to hear. Wall Street’s now reading that as code for “we’re close.”

Still, the Fed’s tools aren’t just limited to the balance sheet. Some traders expect a policy rate cut next week, potentially bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.75%–4%. But without good data, any move now comes with blind spots.

And that’s where the second problem hits: the government shutdown is cutting off the Fed’s access to economic data.

Since early October, official reports on things like unemployment, retail sales, and other critical indicators have gone dark. The shutdown stopped government data collection in its tracks, leaving the Fed flying blind just days before a key policy meeting.

To make it worse, the labor market was already softening. August showed the slowest hiring pace since 2010, and unemployment was rising fast among young people and minorities. The central bank can’t properly judge whether the slowdown is temporary or systemic.

Fed hunts for alternatives as data blackout continues

With the government’s economic engine stalled, the Fed is turning to whatever’s still running. New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview on October 9 that “we’re still getting a significant amount of data,” pointing to surveys from the Conference Board, the New York Fed, and the Institute for Supply Management. These surveys help track pricing, demand, and business activity—but they’re nowhere near as complete as what agencies like the Commerce Department and Bureau of Labor Statistics normally deliver.

And this time, the situation is even more fragile. ADP, a key payroll software firm, ended its data-sharing deal with the Fed back in August, cutting off another private source of jobs data. That leaves policymakers with even fewer tools than they had during the last shutdown in 2018–2019, when they leaned on card transactions and vehicle sales just to scrape together a picture of consumer behavior.

One exception is the Consumer Price Index for September, which will be released this Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recalled staff just to ensure that release could go out, so Social Security’s annual cost-of-living adjustments have a basis. But that’s it. Most other reports remain frozen.

And economists widely agree on one thing: private-sector numbers just don’t cut it.

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