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The IMF predicts Germany’s economy will grow by 0.2% 

Germany is still struggling to emerge from an economic slump that has persisted for at least two years. So far, economists expect only slight growth next year, with a more notable rebound once more fiscal support measures are rolled out. The International Monetary Fund also forecast that the nation’s economy will grow by 0.2% this year, aligning with official government projections. 

The Bundesbank’s June forecast, however, predicted stagnation. The bank noted in its monthly assessment that an Ifo Institute survey showed more upbeat production plans and export expectations, signaling a somewhat stronger industrial picture by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is still deliberating whether to reduce or increase interest rates for the eurozone. However, Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau suggested a cut is more likely. He remarked, “If there is a next move, a rate cut is more plausible, more likely than a rate hike. I see a few risks on the upside, but there are more risks on the downside.”

Speaking to Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, the head of France’s central bank, however, argued that inflation now carries greater downside risks, adding that the current monetary policy is well-balanced but could be adjusted if needed.

Still, a recent survey showed that confidence in the German economy among financial analysts rose this month, reflecting cautious resilience despite enduring uncertainty for firms.

The ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator, surveying 177 analysts and investors from banks, insurers, and other firms, rose 2 points to 39.3 in October, falling short of the 42.6 forecast by economists polled. ZEW President Achim Wambach stated that respondents remain optimistic about a medium-term upturn, despite persistent global uncertainties.

Bundesbank suggested changes to EU bank regulations

The Bundesbank has recently proposed two major ideas to reduce regulatory requirements for Europe’s banks, as part of its role in an ECB task force preparing recommendations for EU authorities by the end of the year. The German proposal has met resistance from EU banks, which argue that it could undermine profitability — although German regulators insist it’s the right move.

The biggest flashpoint is a plan to draw a clearer line between funds used in normal business and those set aside for resolution or bankruptcy. According to Michael Theurer, the Bundesbank’s head of banking supervision, certain banks utilize AT1 capital in “going-concern” frameworks and would need to adjust; however, he believes the approach can be applied safely across the sector with prudent measures.

On Wednesday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that while existing rules have reinforced financial stability, they have also inflicted significant damage on Germany’s economy. He said, “The banks are too heavily regulated,” adding that he’s worried US competitors are overtaking European banks.

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