Tesouro dos EUA vende US$ 22 bilhões em títulos de 30 anos enquanto grandes dealers atingem menor participação histórica

Mercado de títulos enfrenta reviravolta dramática enquanto investidores institucionais recuam

O leilão do Tesouro americano encontrou terreno instável esta semana - US$ 22 bilhões em títulos de longo prazo encontraram demanda morna enquanto os maiores dealers do mercado registraram sua menor participação histórica. Os chamados 'grandes players' estão claramente repensando sua exposição à dívida governamental de longo prazo.

Queda de confiança institucional

Os números não mentem: quando os principais intermediários financeiros reduzem suas participações em títulos do governo a níveis recordes, algo fundamental está mudando nos mercados de capitais. Enquanto isso, o Tesouro continua bombando ofertas como se ainda estivéssemos na era de juros zero.

Os investidores de criptomoedas observam com interesse - mais uma demonstração de que os mercados tradicionais estão mostrando rachaduras enquanto ativos digitais continuam atraindo capital institucional. Afinal, quem precisa de títulos de 30 anos quando você pode ter transparência em blockchain e retornos reais?

Parece que até os dealers de Wall Street finalmente perceberam que carregar dívida governamental por três décadas não é exatamente o negócio do século - especialmente quando alternativas digitais oferecem liquidez 24/7 e não dependem da impressão de moeda do próximo governo.

Primary dealers cut participation in bond sales

The pullback by dealers has been building for years. Before the 2008 financial crisis, they regularly bought more than 50% of each sale. That has collapsed across the board. Recent auctions of three-year, seven-year, and ten-year notes have also produced record lows for dealers.

Analysts point to two reasons behind the drop. The first is that the size of the Treasury market has grown much faster than the dealers’ own resources, making it harder for them to hold large blocks of debt. The second is the growth of passive investment funds. These funds buy Treasuries automatically to match their indexes, cutting the role of dealers in auctions.

Research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows how big that passive footprint has become. In a blog post, Fed economists Michael Fleming, Jonathan Palash-Mizner, and Or Shachar said trading volume in the $30 trillion US government bond market is on average 58% higher on the last day of the month. That’s when bond indexes are rebalanced. New bonds are added, while any securities that have less than a year left to maturity are dropped.

Last year’s narrower study put the spike in activity at 46% above average, but the new wider numbers show even more trading at month-end. The researchers said “the bigger numbers in this year’s broader study are important for market participants managing trade execution strategies and for policymakers monitoring market functioning and liquidity provision.”

China lowers yields in post-holiday auctions

While Washington was selling long bonds, China’s finance ministry was holding short-term auctions of its own. On Thursday, it priced 28-day bills at 99.925 yuan, giving an annualized yield of 0.98%. That was the lowest since January.

The ministry also sold 63-day bills at a yield of 1.17%, which was also the lowest since the start of the year. Bloomberg data showed both issues attracted strong demand.

Investors in China had built up cash before the Golden Week holiday earlier in October. Once markets reopened, banks quickly moved that cash into government bills.

The People’s Bank of China has kept liquidity conditions anchored with moderately loose policy, leaving room for heavy buying of short-term notes.

In secondary trading, yields on one-month bills also fell further, a sign that inflows continued. Longer-dated securities moved the other way, with yields rising as investors shifted out of debt and into equities. That rotation showed how appetite diverged across maturities, with short paper drawing bids and longer paper being sold.

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