Arthur Hayes do BitMEX: Políticas de Trump e Xi estão alimentando a explosão do Bitcoin

O mercado cripto está em chamas - e o fundador do BitMEX revela os verdadeiros combustíveis por trás do rally.

Os gigantes monetários em ação

Arthur Hayes aponta diretamente para as políticas expansionistas de Donald Trump e Xi Jinping como os motores principais da atual corrida bull do Bitcoin. Enquanto os bancos centrais tradicionais continuam imprimindo como se não houvesse amanhã, o BTC surge como o hedge definitivo contra a depreciação monetária.

O jogo das grandes potências

As medidas de estímulo econômico de ambas as superpotências criaram um cenário perfeito para ativos descentralizados. O fluxo de capital barato busca refúgio em alternativas ao sistema financeiro convencional - e o Bitcoin está colhendo os benefícios.

Enquanto isso, os bancos tradicionais continuam cobrando taxas absurdas por serviços do século passado. Algumas coisas nunca mudam no mundo das finanças.

Governments print, people resist, Bitcoin enters

Arthur points to the internet era, where central governments became even stronger through technology. The question then was how people could defend the right to sound money. He says Satoshi’s Bitcoin came as a gift at the right time.

The BitMEX founder calls it the best form of money yet created, though still valued in relation to the dollar because of America’s dominance. He says Bitcoin’s price shifts follow the supply and price of dollars. That, not the halving cycle, is what matters now.

Arthur recalls three earlier cycles. First was the Genesis cycle (2009-2013), when the global financial crisis wrecked banks. Fed chair Ben Bernanke launched unlimited QE in 2009. China flooded the world with credit. Bitcoin surged but then collapsed in 2013 when both Fed and PBOC slowed money expansion. Dollar supply peaked and rolled over, yuan credit growth slowed, and the bubble burst.

The ICO cycle (2013-2017) came next. Ethereum’s launch fueled token sales. Bitcoin rose because of Chinese liquidity, not American. Credit surged in 2015 as the yuan was devalued. But as yuan credit growth decelerated and the dollar tightened, Bitcoin’s bull run ended in late 2017.

Then came the COVID cycle (2017-2021). Arthur says COVID “definitely killed millions,” but governments worsened it with poor policies. He argues the crisis became an excuse to strip freedoms and print at historic levels.

Donald Trump launched helicopter money, the biggest populist handout since FDR’s New Deal. Trillions entered markets. The dollar supply doubled, and the price of money fell to zero. China, meanwhile, kept tight reins.

Xi Jinping used the period to crack down on property speculation with his “Three Red Lines” rule. That meant China’s credit didn’t fuel the bull run. By late 2021, U.S. inflation soared, Biden ended stimulus checks, and the Fed turned hawkish. The bull market died.

New world order shapes new path

Arthur argues the current cycle, from 2021 onward, is different. He says America is no longer the unquestioned empire. To hide the pain of change, politicians keep printing. Under Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen drained the Fed’s Reverse Repo Program by issuing more T-bills, injecting $2.5 trillion of liquidity.

Her successor, who Arthur humorously calls Buffalo Bill Bessent, carried on until the RRP hit near zero. Meanwhile, China battled deflation. Xi stayed committed to lowering property values. That limited China’s role in global liquidity.

Arthur writes that many traders now call the bull market over, but he disagrees. He cites Fed actions and PBOC signals as proof that liquidity will return. He points to Trump’s return to office, where he pushes to “run the economy hot” and cut rates despite inflation being above the 2% target.

He highlights Trump’s plan to lower housing costs to unlock trillions in equity. Bessent also plans to deregulate banks to boost lending. Arthur concludes that the direction is clear: cheaper money and higher supply.

On China, he says policymakers will step in if pressure rises, and while they may not flood markets like 2009 or 2015, they will not block global liquidity growth either.

Arthur ends by telling readers to watch Washington and Beijing. Both are signaling easier money. He writes: “Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The king is dead, long live the king!”

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