Arábia Saudita eliminará limite de propriedade estrangeira acima de 49% em empresas listadas até o final do ano

A bolsa saudita está prestes a virar um cassino global—e os grandes players já estão fazendo fila.

Fim das restrições históricas

O reino enterra décadas de protecionismo econômico ao permitir que estrangeiros assumam controle majoritário de empresas listadas. A mudança radical surge como parte da Vision 2030—aquele plano de diversificação que todo banqueiro adora citar em conferências.

49% já era

O limite anterior forçava investidores internacionais a operarem como sócios minoritários. Agora, fundos soberanos e multinacionais podem comprar participações decisivas sem pedir permissão à SAGIA. A Autoridade de Mercado de Capitais (CMA) basicamente entregou as chaves do cofre.

Corrida por ativos estratégicos

Setores como energia, finanças e telecomunicações devem atrair aquisições agressivas. Analistas preveem que empresas como Saudi Aramco e SABIC se tornarão alvos prioritários—embora o governo provavelmente mantenha golden shares em setores sensíveis.

O timing não é acidental

Com o preço do petróleo oscilando, Riad acelera reformas para atrair capital estrangeiro antes que a próxima crise global feche as torneiras. Um movimento inteligente—ou desespero mascarado de estratégia?

Os sauditas finalmente entenderam que proteger empresas locais com regulamentos antiquados só as torna presas mais fáceis quando o dinheiro barato acaba. Agora observaremos se Wall Street vai comprar a narrativa—ou apenas os ativos com desconto.

MSCI indexes to react if foreign limits go

Right now, Saudi stocks account for about 3.3% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, but that number would increase overnight if the cap is lifted. Fadi Arbid, who co-founded Amwal Capital Partners and serves as its chief investment officer, said, “A decision to relax means the weight in MSCI will all of a sudden go up and more capital will flock to the market.”

This rule change comes at a time when Saudi stocks are having a rough year. The main index on Tadawul is down 9.6%, which makes it the worst performer in the entire Gulf.

Meanwhile, the broader MSCI emerging-markets benchmark is up 25% in dollar terms. That performance gap is not something Riyadh wants to carry into 2026, especially while trying to hit major economic goals.

Foreigners are still buying in, though. In August, they made up 35% of all stock purchases on the exchange. But while the foreign share is growing, total daily turnover has dropped to its lowest since 2023. That means foreign money is grabbing a larger share of a shrinking market.

Saudi Arabia is under pressure to pull in more capital from abroad. The government is deep into its Vision 2030 economic plan, which requires huge spending. But oil revenue is falling behind.

Right now, Brent crude is trading around $66 per barrel, while Saudi’s budget breakeven is $94. Add in domestic spending by the sovereign wealth fund, and that number jumps to $111, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Foreign investors target top Saudi firms despite downturn

Despite all that, foreign investors aren’t running. They’ve actually been buying into a few specific names. Tawuniya, a major insurance firm, Rasan, a tech company, and Etihad Etisalat, a telecom operator, all have foreign ownership levels above 20% but still under 25%.

Abdulaziz’s push to remove the cap is seen as a short-term boost for passive investors, but also a long-term signal for active funds. Fadi said the change could push many of them to rethink their positions and pour more into the market.

The oil slump is still dragging on Saudi stocks, but not every name is bleeding.

According to Kamco’s Ansari, if you remove Aramco and Sabic from the mix, the market is actually showing about 7% profit growth. Some individual stocks are even doing well. Saudi National Bank is up 11% this year. Saudi Telecom Co. has gained 13%.

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