XRP : Le récit du choc d’offre gagne du terrain, mais les analystes le jugent exagéré

Le marché des cryptomonnaies s'emballe pour une nouvelle théorie : un choc d'offre sur le XRP serait imminent. Le récit, qui circule à la vitesse de l'éclair sur les réseaux sociaux et les forums spécialisés, prédit une pénurie soudaine du jeton, propulsant son prix vers des sommets inédits. L'idée séduit une partie de la communauté, avide de signaux haussiers après des mois de consolidation.

Le mécanisme supposé

Les partisans de cette thèse pointent du doigt plusieurs facteurs convergents. Ils évoquent une absorption accélérée par les grandes institutions, un verrouillage progressif des liquidités dans des protocoles de finance décentralisée (DeFi), et une réduction silencieuse de la vente par les « baleines ». Ensemble, ces éléments dessineraient les contours d'un resserrement de l'offre disponible sur les marchés spot.

Un scepticisme de bon aloi

Pourtant, du côté des bureaux d'analyse, le ton est nettement plus mesuré. Les experts rappellent que le tokenomics de XRP, avec son approvisionnement connu et ses libérations programmées, laisse peu de place aux surprises. Ils qualifient le récit de « surfait » et mettent en garde contre un emballement spéculatif basé sur des indicateurs on-chain interprétés de manière trop optimiste. Un analyste a même glissé, avec la pointe de cynisme propre à la finance traditionnelle, que « prédire une pénurie est toujours plus vendeur que d'annoncer une abondance tranquille ».

Reste que dans la cryptosphère, les récits ont souvent le pouvoir de créer leur propre réalité, au moins à court terme. La question n'est donc pas de savoir si le choc d'offre est réel, mais si suffisamment de gens y croient pour en provoquer un.

Several individuals raise concerns about XRP’s decline in supply

Morgan shared an X post dated Monday, December 29, saying:  “I have criticized the supply shock theory just as I did with the silly Ripple escrow dump theory. Neither of these theories provides significant insight into understanding XRP price movements. What really matters is what Bitcoin’s price is doing; that’s the key factor.” 

He made these remarks at a time when a reliable source had published reports of a drastic decline in the amount of XRP available on exchanges. The report noted that the supply decreased by about 1.5 billion tokens. 

Feedback from the crypto community and analysts suggests a common factor behind this drop. They argued that the decrease may be connected to shifting market sentiment among investors, as significant holders appear to be moving their tokens to centralized exchanges (CEXs), probably for long-term storage.

Meanwhile, apart from Morgan, the XRPL dUNL validator, VET, also disagreed with the crypto community’s argument that the supply of XRP on exchanges has declined. According to VET, the supply is abundant, citing recent reports that declare the total supply of the Ripple token available on exchanges to be approximately 16 billion.

After this argument was displayed, sources concluded that the tweet stressed the flexible nature of XRP liquidity. It also noted how varying it can be, adding that, “If the price rises or falls, anyone without XRP on exchanges can send theirs in just 3-4 seconds. Therefore, the token listed for sale on order books is also dynamic. It can quickly increase or decrease in volume.”

Analysts observed that a $10 million purchase occasionally had the potential to boost the price, resulting in a rise. At other times, reports noted that a $100 million purchase might struggle to prevent the price from declining.

However, even with this argument in place, several individuals still raise concerns about the possibility of an XRP supply shock and its impact on the price of the Ripple token. Recent feedback suggests that the increasing interest in XRP ETFs is a factor contributing to this situation.

The possibility of an XRP supply shock sparks tension in the ecosystem 

Established in November 2025, the XRP ETF has drawn significant attention from investors, with more than $1.25 billion in net assets collected. As a result, fewer tokens have been left on exchanges for direct trading. 

Following this finding, a prominent crypto commentator on the X platform with the username unknownDLT weighs in on the matter. The individual acknowledged that XRP ETFs are acquiring the existing Ripple token supply at a faster and increasing pace. This claim has therefore prompted the analyst to believe in the possibility of an XRP supply shock sooner than anticipated, with recent reports indicating a substantial 750 million token absorption.

Experts, on the other hand, stated that this is the perfect time for a considerable surge in the prices of XRP. They asserted that this can be achieved because of the connection between a drop in supply and an increase in demand.

In the meantime, analysts predict that the value of the crypto will substantially increase, despite the current situation in which exchanges face hardships and buyers in the market begin to collect the insufficient supply. Moreover, reports indicate that the ongoing investment in ETFs may help alleviate the aggressive selling pressure exerted on the Ripple token, sparking hope in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

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