Le PDG de Bank of America prédit que Trump apaisera les tensions commerciales en 2026

Un géant bancaire mise sur un retour à la stabilité. Selon le PDG de Bank of America, l'horizon économique pourrait se dégager dès l'année prochaine, avec une réduction significative des frictions commerciales sous une administration Trump.

Un pari sur le calme

Les marchés détestent l'incertitude. L'affirmation du dirigeant bancaire trace une ligne directe entre un changement politique anticipé et un environnement commercial plus prévisible. Moins de guerres tarifaires, moins de tweets incendiaires à minuit—un scénario qui fait sourire les salles de marché.

Les implications pour la finance

Une détente commerciale signifie un flux plus fluide des capitaux, une volatilité réduite sur les devises et, potentiellement, un regain de confiance des investisseurs. C'est la recette classique pour un rallye des actifs risqués. Les traders, toujours prompts à anticiper, pourraient commencer à positionner leurs portefeuilles dès maintenant.

Un rappel cynique

Parce qu'en finance, la seule prédiction fiable est que les grandes banques trouveront toujours un moyen de monétiser la prédiction elle-même—que la paix commerciale advienne ou non.

La balle est désormais dans le camp des électeurs. Leur décision en 2024 scellera—ou anéantira—cette vision d'un monde du commerce apaisé pour 2026.

Moynihan’s belief regarding Trump’s tariff policies sparks hope in the market 

As Trump’s tariff policies continue to create tension in the markets, Moynihan released a statement attempting to explain the matter. In the statement, Bank of America’s CEO pointed out that, “Going from a 10% rate across the board to 15% for most countries is not a huge change.” Based on his argument, this situation demonstrated that the tension in the market is beginning to reduce.

Regarding the progress of the tariff imposition, reports dated April mentioned that the US president began by implementing an initial tariff rate of about 10% on all goods imported to the US. In July, trump announced the introduction of several new tariffs. These tariffs were anticipated to increase the average rate to around 15.2%, applicable to the country’s key trading partners, once they were imposed as scheduled.

In the meantime, data from a reliable source indicated that the average tariff rate in the US increased from 2% to 14% after Trump took office.

As the situation becomes intense, Moynihan admitted that China raises a different question, similar to North American trading partners, because a review of the US-Mexico-Canada agreement is set to take place in 2026. Nonetheless, even with this assertion, the CEO still insists that one can tell how things are generally progressing.

Moynihan also claimed that small businesses faced significant challenges in the second quarter of the year, which were largely attributed to tariff hikes and growing uncertainties regarding trade policies.

After some time, these businesses experienced relief when rates began to drop significantly. In Moynihan’s analysis, he declared that what small businesses find challenging at the moment is not tariffs, but rather locating employees. He made these remarks at a time when specific immigration policies adopted by the Trump administration had not yet completely taken effect.

The fate of Trump’s tariff policies ignites debates among individuals 

Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC) in the Trump administration, earlier asserted that the administration is confident that the US Supreme Court will make a decision that favors them on matters related to the legality of the tariffs Trump implemented.

Analysts weighed in on the situation. They argued that if, by any chance, the court rules against the tariffs, then it could eliminate several of them and mandate the government to compensate those affected by up to $100 billion. Following this statement, Hassett noted that such an incident could lead to serious administrative issues.

He also argued that at this point, he agreed that the concept of $2,000 tariff rebate checks is highly likely. Notably, this idea was earlier proposed by the US president. Concerning this sudden decision, Hassett explained that, “Back in summer, I wasn’t sure if there was room for such a check, but now I believe there is.” With this in mind, the US official anticipated that Trump would submit a formal proposal to Congress next year.

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