Bitwise CIO prédit une décennie forte mais sans éclat pour le Bitcoin

Le directeur des investissements de Bitwise anticipe une trajectoire solide pour le roi des cryptomonnaies, mais tempère les attentes de boom spectaculaire.

Une croissance régulière, pas une fusée

Oubliez les prédictions de prix à six chiffres pour demain. La vision présentée mise sur une adoption institutionnelle continue et une maturation du marché, éloignant le Bitcoin de son image d'actif purement spéculatif. L'accent est mis sur la construction d'une infrastructure robuste plutôt que sur les pics de volatilité à court terme.

Un actif qui entre dans le rang

Cette perspective suggère une normalisation, où le Bitcoin gagne sa place aux côtés des classes d'actifs traditionnelles. Une évolution qui agace probablement les puristes de la décentralisation mais qui rassure les gérants de fonds – ceux-là mêmes qui adorent la disruption tant qu'elle s'accompagne de frais de gestion prévisibles.

L'avenir n'est pas écrit à la lampe torche

Le message est clair : la route vers la légitimité est longue et semée de réglementations. Une décennie « forte mais sans éclat » pourrait bien être le prix à payer pour que le Bitcoin passe du statut de révolutionnaire à celui de pilier – un compromis que la finance traditionnelle est prête à accepter, moyennant une petite commission.

Hougan says 4-year BTC price cycle still matters in people’s minds

Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, claimed that although the four-year Bitcoin price cycle is practically dead, the concept still resonates in people’s minds. He appears to believe that this is one of the primary reasons BTC prices have been suppressed this year. He also believes the new ten-year grind has been the reason behind Bitcoin’s lower volatility.

On the other hand, ReserveOne’s Sebastian Bea also observed that humans are predictably irrational. He, therefore, believes it is still somewhat difficult to determine whether the four-year BTC price cycle is truly dead.

However, Ryan Chow, the co-founder of Solv Protocol, explained that the traditional four-year trend is being replaced by more macro-correlated, liquidity-sensitive behavior.

“It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over.” 

–Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise 

Bea also noted that although the four-year BTC price cycle did not currently make sense, PEOPLE could continue to react to the market based on this concept. He further noted that the severity of the upside or downside of these market reactions could differ from what typically occurs in a four-year BTC price cycle, as that trend may already have been phased out. 

Meanwhile, well-known crypto KOL Alex Wacy recently stated that the four-year cycle has not yet been broken. He emphasized that what has been broken is people’s expectations. He further noted that optimism has been replaced with plummeting altcoin prices, a lack of hype or altcoin season, and investors are only experiencing dullness and pain. 

DTCC to bring $99T of assets on-chain, possibly bringing a new cycle

According to Bea, the announcement of DTCC plans to bring $99 trillion of assets on-chain could usher in a new BTC price cycle. He seems to believe that this massive capital injection could significantly tip the Bitcoin ownership distribution scale, as Chow appears to believe that the 70%-80% crashes will soon be a thing of the past. 

Data retrieved from River Financial shows that individuals hold the majority of Bitcoin, around 65.9% as of August 2025. Meanwhile, businesses (6.2%), ETFs & funds (7.8%), and governments (1.5%) hold smaller but growing shares.

Satoshi still holds the highest BTC holdings at 968,000 BTC (~4.6% of the supply), while other entities account for approximately 1.4% of the supply (~287,000 BTC). Notably, 7.6% (~1.58 million BTC) of the BTC supply is lost, and approximately 5.2% (~1.09 million BTC) remains to be mined.

Among the well-known individual Bitcoin billionaires are the Winklevoss twins, Tyler and Cameron, who currently hold an estimated 70,000 BTC. The duo reportedly bought $11 million worth of BTC at an average price of $10 per BTC.  

VC titan Tim Draper is also another individual with massive BTC holdings. Despite losing 40,000 BTC initially purchased at the Mt. Gox exchange due to hacking, Draper bought 29,656 BTC in 2014 for $18.7 million, at an average of $632 per BTC. 

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