IA et dépenses de défense : le duo qui propulse l’essor industriel

Les géants technologiques et les contrats militaires redessinent le paysage manufacturier.

L'effet multiplicateur

Les investissements dans l'intelligence artificielle dopent les chaînes de production - tandis que les budgets défense transforment les usines en arsenaux high-tech. Une convergence qui fait trembler les indices boursiers.

Révolution ou bulle spéculative ?

Les usines s'équipent de robots autonomes, les drones surveillent les supply chains, et les algorithmes prédisent les pannes avant qu'elles n'arrivent. Le complexe militaro-industriel version 2.0 se construit à coups de milliards - avec la bénédiction des marchés financiers, toujours friands de nouveaux prétextes pour gonfler les valorisations.

Résultat : une course effrénée où les gains d'efficacité côtoient les surchauffes capitalistiques. L'industrie retrouve des couleurs, mais à quel prix ? Les traders, eux, se frottent déjà les mains - après tout, rien ne vaut une bonne vieille peur géopolitique pour justifier des P/E ratios astronomiques.

AI and defense spending lead industrial surge

Europe’s industrial firms are set to outperform all other sectors this earnings season, due to an increase in investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure and defense spending.

The capital goods segment is projected to have 15% EPS growth for the quarter. Strategist Kaidi Meng says that about half of that growth is due to Siemens Energy AG, ABB Ltd., and Prysmian SpA. These companies are leveraging the growing demand for electrification.

“Electrification is a derivative of the AI spending and rollout of data centers,” Bloomberg Intelligence strategist, Laurent Douillet, said. He added, “Given the market view that AI spending will grow even bigger next year, this segment continues to do well.”

ABB, the leader of the automation market in Germany, has been collaborating with Nvidia Corp. to develop next-generation AI data centers.

Prysmian, an Italian cable manufacturer, recently saw its price target raised by UBS Group AG due to its exposure to U.S. data center expansion. Citigroup analyst Vivek Midha also expects Prysmian to announce a guidance upgrade and called the products responsible for the company’s growth “durable.”

Siemens Energy is benefiting from what analysts describe as “unprecedented order momentum and solid execution.” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Omid Vaziri and Pauline Eschbach predict that the firm could raise its mid-term targets at its fiscal fourth-quarter results in November due to a stronger-than-expected demand for gas turbines and grid technologies.

Manufacturers such as Rheinmetall AG, Thales SA, and Leonardo SpA are expected to report strong figures for the fiscal year, boosted by increased defense spending.

Europe’s industrial market shows resilience

Analysts have raised estimates for European industrial and financial companies, but they’ve lowered expectations for the overall Stoxx Europe 600 index.

According to Douillet, the industrial sector’s outperformance could continue until 2026 if investments into electrification and defense remain strong. Recent data shows that the MSCI Europe Industrials Index has outperformed the overall MSCI Europe Index since October 2024.

“The impact of major infrastructure investments in Germany, combined with lower interest rates benefiting construction, will likely provide an additional boost,” he said.

Germany’s industrial production fell 4.3% in August from the previous month. Companies such as SKF AB, Atlas Copco AB, and Siemens AG may feel the impact in their automotive and industrial technology divisions.

The ongoing U.S.-China tariff dispute could also hurt demand and pricing for European manufacturers. Douillet warned that many firms may have rushed to ship and sell more of their products earlier in the year to get ahead of potential tariffs, which creates uncertainty about sales and shipments in the second half of the year.

An escalation in trade hostilities could reduce Chinese demand for European industrial products while boosting the competitiveness of domestic Chinese firms.

“If China retaliates, it could further erode European market share,” Douillet cautioned.

Swedish industrial companies are also facing issues due to the strong krona and a weak U.S. dollar, as that could affect export revenues and profit margins.

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