La Banque nationale suisse rompt sa série de baisses de taux face aux tarifs douaniers américains

Choc monétaire en Suisse : la BNS change de cap

Les décideurs helvétiques suspendent brusquement leur politique accommodante - une réaction directe aux nouvelles barrières commerciales imposées par Washington. Les marchés s'attendaient à une énième réduction, mais les banquiers centraux ont retourné leur veste plus vite qu'un trader durant un flash crash.

Impact sur les devises et au-delà

Le franc suisse reprend des couleurs tandis que les actifs risqués tremblent. Les investisseurs crypto surveillent les flux de capitaux qui pourraient chercher refuge dans les actifs numériques - une dynamique classique lorsque la politique traditionnelle montre ses limites.

Les banques centrales dans l'impasse

Entre inflation tenace et guerre commerciale, les institutions monétaires naviguent à vue. La BNS rejoint le club sélect des banques centrales contraintes de faire marche arrière, prouvant une fois de plus que la planification économique a la précision d'une dart board en pleine tempête.

Swiss exports got hit hard with US tariffs

This decision came after trump hit Swiss exports with a 39% tariff in August, creating problems for companies selling goods to America. As a result, Switzerland had suspended all US shipments, as reported earlier by Cryptopolitan.

The bank said machinery makers and watchmakers are getting hit hardest by the trade penalties, but other businesses, especially service companies, haven’t seen much damage yet.

“The economic outlook for Switzerland has deteriorated due to significantly higher U.S. tariffs. The tariffs are likely to dampen exports and investment especially,” bank officials wrote.

Martin Schlegel, who runs the Swiss National Bank, talked to reporters after the rate announcement. He called Trump’s tariffs a big problem for affected companies and said they would probably slow down business activity.

The tariffs and uncertainty have forced the bank to cut its growth forecast for 2026 to just under 1%. They used to think the economy would grow between 1% and 1.5% next year. Officials also warned that more PEOPLE will probably lose their jobs.

Schlegel told CNBC that exporters face tough times, but the overall economy won’t get hurt too badly.

“The exporters that are directly affected, for them this is very challenging, very difficult, but if you look at the economy as a whole, the impact is limited,” he said on the news channel. “We don’t see a recession in the coming quarter so for 2025, we have growth of 1 to 1.5%, in 2026 we still see growth of roughly 1% so we don’t see a recession.”

Petra Schudin sits on the bank’s main board. She told reporters that Switzerland’s economic future looks worse because of the much higher American tariffs, which will hurt exports and business spending.

In the mean time, Swiss leaders are trying to work out a tariff deal with Trump. The Swiss bank made its choice one week after America’s Federal Reserve cut rates to stop unemployment from rising. Fed officials hinted they might cut more times soon.

Analysts weren’t shocked by the Swiss decision

Analysts pointed out that Switzerland’s currency has stayed pretty steady against the euro as another reason not to make changes.

GianLuigi Mandruzzato works as an economist at EFG Bank. He said keeping rates at 0% made sense.

“It was no surprise the SNB left rates unchanged at 0%,” Mandruzzato said. The choice shows that inflation is back in the bank’s 0-2% target zone and should move toward the middle of that range in coming years while the economy keeps growing slowly.

Bank chief Schlegel has said many times that bringing back negative rates would be really hard. The bank used negative rates from December 2014 to September 2022, which upset savers and pension funds.

Swiss prices have gotten back into the central bank’s 0-2% target range after going negative in May. On Thursday, the bank stuck with its view that inflation will climb to 0.5% in 2026 after hitting 0.2% this year.

Even though rates stayed the same, some experts think the Swiss bank will have to cut them again later.

Adrian Prettejohn, who studies Europe’s economy for Capital Economics, doesn’t think rate cuts are done yet.

“We do not think that this is the end of the rate cutting cycle,” Prettejohn said. He thinks inflation will average around zero next year, which could push the bank to cut rates again to avoid deflation.

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