OPEC+ prévoit d’augmenter sa production pétrolière de 548 000 barils par jour en septembre

Les géants du pétrole serrent les boulons. OPEC+ annonce une hausse de production qui pourrait faire trembler les marchés.

548 000 barils supplémentaires chaque jour - de quoi faire sourire les traders et pleurer les écologistes.

Une manœuvre calculée qui arrive pile quand les économies mondiales commencent à tousser. Coïncidence ? Les traders n'y croient pas une seconde.

Pendant ce temps, le Bitcoin rigole sous cape - au moins son mining ne prétend pas être écolo.

Accelerated production reversal deepens global supply concerns

By July, the group had already advanced its monthly production hikes, and now this planned 548,000 bpd addition for September will fully undo last year’s supply cut. But even as this round gets wrapped up, markets are already eyeing the next wave of withheld oil.

There’s still 1.66 million bpd of output that remains formally shut in until the end of 2026, and traders are betting that could be brought back earlier if current trends hold.

For now, more oil is on the way. And the consequences are being felt. On Friday, Brent crude dropped $2.03 to $69.67 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell $1.93 to $67.33, as fears of additional supply combined with weak U.S. economic data.

That data came from the Labor Department, which reported the country only added 73,000 jobs in July, well below expectations. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. These numbers rattled investors already worried about softening demand.

Despite the price drop, oil still gained for the week. Brent finished up nearly 6%, and WTI climbed 6.29%, thanks to strong summer demand. But that might not last long. Analysts are already warning about the possibility of a global surplus later this year. More barrels from OPEC+, combined with cooling economies, could tip the market back into oversupply.

Gas prices are already falling. Benchmark retail gasoline prices in the U.S. dipped in July, and this fresh OPEC+ move could keep them sliding. That’s a short-term win for consumers, and politically convenient for Trump, who’s been hammering the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Russia and Saudi Arabia reinforce OPEC+ alliance amid tensions

At the same time, Trump’s team is threatening to impose secondary sanctions on any country that continues to import Russian crude unless there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine. That threat could disrupt flows and push prices back up, the exact opposite of Trump’s goal to keep energy costs down.

To avoid fractures inside OPEC+, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak made a rare trip to Riyadh on Thursday, where he met with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. The two discussed energy cooperation between their countries, reinforcing their leadership within the nearly decade-old alliance.

That partnership will be key as OPEC+ navigates the next phase of production policy. While three PEOPLE with direct knowledge of the group’s internal talks said the 548,000 bpd figure is likely to be locked in this weekend, one person said the final volume is still being debated and could end up slightly lower.

What’s clear is that OPEC is moving quickly. After years of defending prices, the group is now focused on reclaiming market share, even if that risks another supply glut. With demand looking shaky and politics heating up, the next few months could decide how long this aggressive production strategy holds.

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