¡Mercados apuestan fuerte: La Fed recortará tasas en septiembre!

Los traders están doblando sus fichas—y los algoritmos están apostando a verde. La Reserva Federal parece encaminada a un recorte de tasas en septiembre, según los futuros del mercado. ¿Otra jugada para salvar a Wall Street de sí misma?

Señales claras en los derivados:

Los contratos de fondos federales ahora precioan un 75% de probabilidad de un recorte de 25 puntos básicos. Los bonos del Tesoro ya están descontando la movida—porque claro, los mercados siempre saben más que la Fed.

Impacto en cripto:

Bitcoin rompió resistencia en $65K justo cuando los rumores se intensificaron. Los 'risk assets' podrían recibir otro shot de liquidez barata—exactamente lo que necesitaba esta burbuja.

Cerrando con ironía:

Porque nada estimula la economía real como hacer más rico al 1% que juega con activos financieros. La Fed: el dealer de liquidez definitivo.

Inflation data in focus as rate cut bets shift

JPMorgan’s chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli is leaning toward a run of cuts, saying the Fed could lower rates at all three remaining meetings through the end of 2025 “before pausing indefinitely.” He noted:

“It’s not unprecedented for the Fed to ease when stocks are at or near all-time highs. It’s rarer when stocks are at the highs and inflation is above target and inflecting higher.”

The bank had previously forecast its first cut in December, but now sees a 25-basis-point reduction in September, followed by three more quarter-point moves before stopping. Feroli wrote that for Chair Jerome Powell, “the risk management considerations at the next meeting may go beyond balancing employment and inflation risks.”

For traders, the path to September now runs straight through next week’s inflation prints. Stronger-than-expected CPI or PPI data could force the Fed to hold fire. Softer readings could do the opposite, locking in a September move and setting the tone for the rest of the year.

Trump’s Fed board pick adds more uncertainty to September

Trump on Thursday nominated Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, to temporarily replace outgoing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.

The 14-year seat becomes permanently vacant on February 1, and the White House says it’s already hunting for a long-term nominee. Trump also said he is considering possible replacements for Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.

Miran’s confirmation before the September meeting isn’t guaranteed, but JPMorgan analysts believe his presence could sharpen divisions on the rate-setting committee.

The nomination follows Trump’s repeated but unsuccessful pushes to get the Fed to cut rates more aggressively. Installing Miran, even briefly, could give him a more direct line into the central bank’s decision-making.

For now, investors are left with two big variables: the inflation numbers due next week and the political maneuvering around the Fed’s board. Both will hit before September 16–17, and both could decide whether the market’s latest rescue fantasy actually happens.

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