¡Alerta de liquidez! El suministro de dinero M2 de EE.UU. alcanza un récord y podría impulsar a BTC
El dinero impreso sigue fluyendo: la medida M2 de la Reserva Federal acaba de marcar otro máximo histórico. ¿Está Bitcoin preparado para absorber este exceso de liquidez?
Cuando la máquina de imprimir dólares se acelera, los ojos se giran hacia el oro digital. El M2 -que incluye efectivo, depósitos y fondos del mercado monetario- superó los $22 billones esta semana. Tradicionalmente, esto significaría inflación... pero la FED sigue jugando con las tasas como si fueran un joystick.
Los tiburones de Wall Street ya están reposicionándose. Mientras los bonos del Tesoro rinden menos que un colchón, los grandes fondos están asignando más a activos alternativos. Bitcoin, con su suministro rígidamente limitado, aparece como el drenaje perfecto para este exceso de dólares.
¿La ironía? El mismo sistema que desconfiaba de las criptomonedas ahora depende de ellas para preservar valor. Como dicen en la City: 'Cuando el dinero es gratis, hasta un meme coin parece buena idea'. Pero esta vez, el mercado podría estar ante un rally fundamentado en matemáticas monetarias, no en hype.
The US money supply hit a new record, also boosting the global M2 money. | Source: Federal Reserve
The metric started climbing from a low of $20.7 trillion in 2023, coinciding with the reawakening of crypto after the years-long bear market. The expansion of the M2 coincides with another debt ceiling crisis looming. The Fed may have to continue with the monetary easing, further growing the available M2 and boosting market confidence.
BTC still follows the M2 trend closely
Over time, BTC has shown a correlation to both the global and US-based M2 supply. BTC lagged the indicator by a few months, being especially reactive to an M2 supply squeeze. A similar lag is seen in BTC expansion, which lags M2 growth by 3-6 months.
On a shorter time scale, the M2 global money supply predicted the April BTC rally, when the price broke out and revisited levels above $100,000. On some occasions, the BTC price rally lags by only 1-2 weeks after shifts in the money supply.
BTC has sometimes surged ahead during periods of low M2 growth, but those rallies are now seen as signs of a bubble. If the BTC price moves more closely to the M2 supply, the effects may be a more sustainable trend, when the market has not yet peaked with a short-term bubble.
Global M2 money supply expands more gradually
The global M2 money supply has been expanding more gradually in the past five years, based on data from the four leading central banks.
As of July 2025, the M2 supply is at $93.69 trillion, growing by 7.45% in the past year. The recent BTC growth far outpaces the money supply, based on additional directed liquidity from stablecoins. However, the general sense of growing inflation and stock market exuberance is also translating into crypto expansion.
While crypto activity is highly concentrated in the USA, China may also be a source of growing liquidity. The M2 money supply of China has been expanding for the past decade, with no slowdowns even during the Covid-19 pandemic. As a result, China’s M2 supply is over $44 trillion, more than double the liquidity of the USA.
Global liquidity is even more closely watched in relation to BTC and its potential performance in the second half of 2025. BTC is now seen as lagging, while the M2 trends may boost the price to new price peaks up to $150,000 per BTC.
The recent performance of BTC is raising questions about the effect of demand. The M2 chart is seen as a potential trigger, where corporate and ETF buying are too small to drive up valuations. The global M2 growth, however, coincides with a period of uncertainty, though still potentially affecting the nominal prices of all assets.
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